Deleted
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Apr 20, 2024 12:57:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2019 17:44:45 GMT
Paul Waldman...
“Oh my goodness, managing the economy turned out to be more complicated than Trump thought:”
His column in the Washington Post
“Could managing the economy be more complicated than Donald Trump thought?”
“When Donald Trump ran for president in 2016, he told voters a relatively simple story about the economy: Though the recovery after the Great Recession seemed to be proceeding steadily, in fact everything was terrible. First, the government was probably falsifying unemployment data: “Don’t believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment,” he said. “As high as 35 — as in fact, I heard recently, 42 percent.”
* More fundamentally, the United States was an economic basket case because shrewd foreigners, particularly the Chinese, had taken advantage of us for decades, especially through trade. “They’re laughing at us!” he would declare again and again, displaying what appeared to be an almost pathological obsession with the idea of being laughed at.
At an even higher level of abstraction, Trump insisted the whole system — economic, political, all of it — was “rigged” by elites against the interests of ordinary people.
Part of his success came from the fact that, within the latter two claims, there was some truth (though the bit about unemployment numbers was complete fiction). China’s emergence as a manufacturing powerhouse really did hurt manufacturing employment in the United States. The system really is rigged by the wealthy and powerful, even if Trump would come to Washington and proceed to rig it even further.
But it turned out that managing the economy, to the extent that a president is capable of doing so, has been quite a bit harder than Trump thought. Though unemployment has continued to fall on the same trajectory that began when Barack Obama was president (in fact, jobs were created at a faster pace during the last 2½ years of Obama’s term than in the first 2½ years of Trump’s), there are some worrying signs for both the short and long term.
Let’s take a quick look around at some recent economic news:
* Yesterday, the administration announced it was delaying a planned round of tariffs on Chinese goods until after shelves are stocked for the holiday season in order to avoid price spikes in consumer goods that might make people angry. This was a tacit acknowledgment Trump has been lying in his repeated insistence that China pays the tariffs, when in fact they’re paid by American importers, who usually pass the cost increase on to consumers.
* American taxpayers are spending tens of billions of dollars to support U.S. farmers whose access to the Chinese market has been shut off by the trade war.
* Economists are increasingly worried that the trade war could set off a recession. Meanwhile, although some Chinese manufacturers have been hurt by U.S. tariffs, rather than bringing jobs to the United States, they’re looking to relocate to other low-wage countries such as Vietnam.
* The stock market tumbled today on fears that the “inverted yield curve” is signaling a coming recession: “For the first time since 2007, the yields on short-term U.S. bonds eclipsed those of long-term bonds. This phenomenon, which suggests investors’ faith in the economy is faltering, has preceded every recession in the past 50 years. It isn’t a sure thing, but it’s one of the more reliable signs that something is amiss in the economy. Recessions typically come within 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inverts, according to research from Credit Suisse.”
* A new report from the Economic Policy Institute shows that over the past 40 years, inflation-adjusted compensation for CEOs has increased by 940 percent, while compensation for the typical worker has increased only 12 percent.
So what does all this tell us? Most obviously, Trump could not have been more wrong than when he insisted in 2018 that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” His trade war is somewhere between a failure and a disaster, precisely because he thought it would be easy to win. “We’re learning that maybe China has a higher pain threshold than we thought here,” said Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore. You mean they wouldn’t just knuckle under and give us back all our jobs? Who could have predicted such a thing?
That’s our short-term problem, but the long-term problem suggested by the study of CEO pay is that the economy has been and continues to be organized primarily for the benefit of those at the top. And if we do find ourselves in a recession, it may cause people to step back and realize that not only did Trump have no idea what he was talking about when it came to our immediate challenges, everything he has done will make inequality worse.
One thing we can say for sure is that whatever happens over the next year or two, economic policy turned out to be quite a bit more complicated than Trump thought. Of course, you could say that about almost any policy.
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Deleted
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Apr 20, 2024 12:57:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2019 17:50:17 GMT
Considering that trump never did any hands on work in “his” ventures, of course all this is hard for him.
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Post by kmcginn on Aug 14, 2019 18:11:59 GMT
When he loses in 2020, I picture sitting up in Trump Tower laughing his butt off thinking "Look how I screwed up everything! Now let's see how long it takes them to get back to normal!"
Can't you just see him with that stupid little smirk on his face?
He's such an A$$ - he makes my blood boil!
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Deleted
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Apr 20, 2024 12:57:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2019 18:17:58 GMT
trump appears to be in denial and looking for someone to blame.
”So far, you’ve had Tariffs imposed on 300 Billion Dollars worth of Chinese products, but you can’t tell me that it has hurt our economy...& it really hasn’t led to any kind of serious rise in prices at the consumer level.” @varneyco @foxbusiness And we are taking in $Billions!”
”Tremendous amounts of money pouring into the United States. People want safety!”
“The Great Charles Payne @cvpayne correctly stated that Fed Chair Jay Powell made TWO enormous mistakes. 1. When he said “mid cycle adjustment.” 2. We’re data dependent. “He did not do the right thing.” I agree (to put it mildly!). @varneyco”
I wonder if trump understands the concept our economy is affected by other economies in the world just as other economies in the world are affected by our economy.
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Post by kmcginn on Aug 14, 2019 18:24:38 GMT
Trump doesn't understand ANYTHING about being president!
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Deleted
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Apr 20, 2024 12:57:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2019 20:45:34 GMT
I just checked and the DOW is down 800 points and trump is still doing his spin..
”We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....”
”Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!”
Do I a detect a bit of panic in these tweets?
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scrappinmama
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 4,849
Jun 26, 2014 12:54:09 GMT
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Post by scrappinmama on Aug 14, 2019 21:19:14 GMT
He will NEVER take responsibility for anything.
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Montannie
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 3,486
Location: Big Sky Country
Jun 25, 2014 20:32:35 GMT
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Post by Montannie on Aug 14, 2019 22:40:45 GMT
Yes. Everything is more complicated than he thought. The economy of the world is cooling. The inverted yield curve was last seen in 2007, prior to the crash, per NPR. Hold on.
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Post by Merge on Aug 14, 2019 22:45:15 GMT
Yes. Everything is more complicated than he thought. The economy of the world is cooling. The inverted yield curve was last seen in 2007, prior to the crash, per NPR. Hold on. And he's blaming the Fed. I'll admit I don't know enough about economics to understand if/how the Fed might have prevented this, but it seems par for the course that Trump would blame someone else.
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Post by cropelf on Aug 14, 2019 23:01:33 GMT
First thought was. "Does Trump even think?"
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Post by cropelf on Aug 14, 2019 23:05:11 GMT
Guess we know why he won't release his educational transcripts. They probably aren't very good, or he'd understand a heck of a lot more than he displays in his policies.
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Post by Darcy Collins on Aug 14, 2019 23:57:48 GMT
Yes. Everything is more complicated than he thought. The economy of the world is cooling. The inverted yield curve was last seen in 2007, prior to the crash, per NPR. Hold on. And he's blaming the Fed. I'll admit I don't know enough about economics to understand if/how the Fed might have prevented this, but it seems par for the course that Trump would blame someone else. Typically the Fed has much more direct impact on the economy than the president who frankly doesn't have nearly the impact they take credit/blame for. HOWEVER, a huge part of the market jitters right now are around tariffs. There are arguments that the Fed was too aggressive with raising rates late last year, but doubt it would be the issue if there wasn't so much concern around Trumps on again off again policy around tariffs. Article with more color if you're interested: www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-trump/markets-register-a-shock-but-is-trump-right-to-blame-the-fed-idUSKCN1V41R8
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Post by lisae on Aug 15, 2019 0:35:39 GMT
Yes. Everything is more complicated than he thought. The economy of the world is cooling. The inverted yield curve was last seen in 2007, prior to the crash, per NPR. Hold on. And he's blaming the Fed. I'll admit I don't know enough about economics to understand if/how the Fed might have prevented this, but it seems par for the course that Trump would blame someone else. I knew before I watched the news this evening that he would blame all this on the Fed. Even with the rate increases last year, interest rates are still ridiculously low. The economy boomed in the 90's when interest rates were much higher than they are today, same in the later years of the George W. Bush's years. Trump has no understanding of basic economics. Supply and demand is a concept he can't seem to grasp. He believes that people are so stupid they can't figure out the tariffs won't be passed along to the consumer. He knows nothing about heavy manufacturing. It would baffle him no end to realize that manufacturers often make different products in different countries because it isn't economical to make some of everything in each country rather than importing and exporting. He continually tries to sell people on the idea that you can just make everything in the US again and we will all be able to afford the same products made overseas at a fraction of the cost of US labor. He's probably the dumbest president we have ever had.
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Post by elaine on Aug 15, 2019 0:39:16 GMT
Let’s face it, breathing is more complicated than Trump thought.
His flat-out refusal to understand exactly how tariffs actually work and who pays them plays a huge part in the stock market drops right now.
There is an actual and literal price to pay for studied stupidity and ignorance.
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pudgygroundhog
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 4,643
Location: The Grand Canyon
Jun 25, 2014 20:18:39 GMT
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Post by pudgygroundhog on Aug 15, 2019 1:16:49 GMT
It has been pretty clear from Trump's tweets that he doesn't understand a damn thing about tariffs/economics or is just flat out lying (no surprise on either count).
I am pissed he created this problem for farmers and now taxpayers are on the hook for billions to bail them out, and probably debt that China owns (I never want to hear "free market" or "entitlements" or "deficit" out of the mouth of a conservative again).
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Post by femalebusiness on Aug 15, 2019 1:19:35 GMT
I dumped my stocks right after the asshole was elected. No way was I going to gamble on that con.
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Post by ntsf on Aug 15, 2019 1:24:15 GMT
we have always done best by holding on to stocks through up and downs.. we do cash out a little all the time.. as income for us.
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Post by papersilly on Aug 15, 2019 1:25:00 GMT
He probably thought he could run the nation like his businesses. He would bully companies, threaten to withhold money from them, declare bankruptcy and then walk away. Well, we have trillion dollar debt and at some point he will be voted out or will term out leaving the country holding the bag.
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Post by pierkiss on Aug 15, 2019 3:50:15 GMT
Well duh! Of course this happened/is happening. Fucking moron.
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Deleted
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Apr 20, 2024 12:57:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2019 7:40:19 GMT
I just checked and the DOW is down 800 points and trump is still doing his spin.. ”We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....” ”Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!” Do I a detect a bit of panic in these tweets? Wasn't it Trump that appointed Jay Powell? Ha ha doesn't say much for his skill in getting the right person for the job then does it if he thinks all this uncertainty is JP's fault He really has no clue does he or he's being deliberately dumb how global economies work. No chance of him taking part of the blame for the prediction that his trade wars is contributing to the uncertainty in global markets I suppose. That would be too much to ask for!
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Post by lisae on Aug 15, 2019 11:28:24 GMT
He probably thought he could run the nation like his businesses. He would bully companies, threaten to withhold money from them, declare bankruptcy and then walk away. Well, we have trillion dollar debt and at some point he will be voted out or will term out leaving the country holding the bag. I think you are right. And what we don't really know is how well those business of his actually do. They are privately held and he refuses to reveal even old tax returns. There are plenty of things he could be hiding from voters and one of them is that his business decisions weren't nearly as smart as he claims.
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Post by peasapie on Aug 15, 2019 11:30:13 GMT
Every.single.time.weve had a recession, Republicans are in office.
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lizacreates
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 3,856
Aug 29, 2015 2:39:19 GMT
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Post by lizacreates on Aug 15, 2019 13:55:28 GMT
(Sigh) Considering Trump managed to file corporate bankruptcy six times, it’s only expected he’s ill-equipped to manage a major country’s economy. You know…that big ‘thing” that affects every single human being in the United States as well as other countries. The big “thing” that requires problem-solving, intelligent analysis, and tactical, strategic and practical thinking…skills he most definitely does not possess.
The prevailing Trump method is bravado, bluster, bullying, bombast and bullshit, all because they are far easier to deploy than read and learn about the complexities of our economy. I don’t expect a president to be an economics wizard, really, I don’t (that’s what he has advisers and experts for); however, Trump’s Wharton undergraduate degree is IN ECONOMICS. So, one would think he’d at least have a firm grip on the basics.
His own people cottoned to this woeful deficiency quite rapidly though they kept their mouths shut for a long time: Steve Mnuchin, Reince Priebus and John Kelly said he’s an idiot; Steve Bannon said he’s an eleven-year-old child (surely an insult to eleven-year-olds everywhere); Rex Tillerson said he’s a moron; H R McMaster said he’s a dope and has the intelligence of a kindergartener; Jim Mattis said he had the understanding of a fifth- or sixth-grader; and Gary Cohn said he’s dumb as shit. His former college professor said Trump is the dumbest student he ever had. His ghostwriter said Trump displays a stunning level of superficial knowledge and plain ignorance.
Most of us are familiar with the Dunning-Kruger effect, which simply means when someone is incompetent and ignorant, he might not know enough to realize he’s incompetent and ignorant, and thus, assigns more intelligence on himself than he actually possesses. That’s why the desire to remedy the situation does not exist. That malady clearly afflicts the self-professed “stable genius” president. We and our pocketbooks are along for the very bumpy ride. Just be thankful Herman Cain and Stephen Moore decided to bail. It’s either that or be totally exasperated.
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Post by femalebusiness on Aug 15, 2019 15:20:28 GMT
Every.single.time.weve had a recession, Republicans are in office. And the Democrats have to come in and right the sinking ship.
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Post by femalebusiness on Aug 15, 2019 15:22:44 GMT
He probably thought he could run the nation like his businesses. He would bully companies, threaten to withhold money from them, declare bankruptcy and then walk away. Well, we have trillion dollar debt and at some point he will be voted out or will term out leaving the country holding the bag. I think you are right. And what we don't really know is how well those business of his actually do. They are privately held and he refuses to reveal even old tax returns. There are plenty of things he could be hiding from voters and one of them is that his business decisions weren't nearly as smart as he claims. To my knowledge he has never had a successful business venture. What money he has, he has made through con, blackmail, money laundering and other criminal activities.
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Deleted
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Apr 20, 2024 12:57:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2019 15:51:35 GMT
I think you are right. And what we don't really know is how well those business of his actually do. They are privately held and he refuses to reveal even old tax returns. There are plenty of things he could be hiding from voters and one of them is that his business decisions weren't nearly as smart as he claims. To my knowledge he has never had a successful business venture. What money he has, he has made through con, blackmail, money laundering and other criminal activities. I don't think he IS that wealthy. I think he's living the high life on loans and the persona he's build himself that make some believe he's wealthy. Yes, there are all these buildings/businesses that supposedly belong to him but they don't really. they're more than likely mortgaged to the hilts. If all the banks or his loan companies called in all their loans tomorrow I think we'd find him to be short of a penny or two. He lives his life on borrowed money. Plenty of so called wealthy people do and give everyone else the impression that they are actually wealthy purely by their life style but they're usually in debt up to their eye balls when the truth in known.
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LeaP
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Posts: 3,939
Location: Los Angeles, CA where 405 meets 101
Jun 26, 2014 23:17:22 GMT
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Post by LeaP on Aug 15, 2019 16:29:03 GMT
Surely you jest, trade wars are easy to win!
His bankrupt casino says it all, with his dad bailing him out with poker chips.
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Deleted
Posts: 0
Apr 20, 2024 12:57:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2019 16:34:20 GMT
Surely you jest, trade wars are easy to win!His bankrupt casino says it all, with his dad bailing him out with poker chips. Well it should be with the size of his military. It is a war after all!
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Post by papersilly on Aug 15, 2019 16:47:37 GMT
He probably thought he could run the nation like his businesses. He would bully companies, threaten to withhold money from them, declare bankruptcy and then walk away. Well, we have trillion dollar debt and at some point he will be voted out or will term out leaving the country holding the bag. I think you are right. And what we don't really know is how well those business of his actually do. They are privately held and he refuses to reveal even old tax returns. There are plenty of things he could be hiding from voters and one of them is that his business decisions weren't nearly as smart as he claims. we know exactly what happened to at least one of those businesses. the Atlantic City casino. he bullied vendors. didn't pay some of them. filed bankruptcy. closed the casino. put people out of jobs. probably wrote off a lot of the losses on his taxes and made even more money from tax breaks. there have been many articles written about how he and his father ran their businesses to their advantages and to the disadvantage of any vendors or tenants who lived at their properties.
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Post by pierkiss on Aug 15, 2019 16:49:14 GMT
To my knowledge he has never had a successful business venture. What money he has, he has made through con, blackmail, money laundering and other criminal activities. I don't think he IS that wealthy. I think he's living the high life on loans and the persona he's build himself that make some believe he's wealthy. Yes, there are all these buildings/businesses that supposedly belong to him but they don't really. they're more than likely mortgaged to the hilts. If all the banks or his loan companies called in all their loans tomorrow I think we'd find him to be short of a penny or two. He lives his life on borrowed money. Plenty of so called wealthy people do and give everyone else the impression that they are actually wealthy purely by their life style but they're usually in debt up to their eye balls when the truth in known. I think the exact same thing about him/his family.
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