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Pearl Clutcher
Not my circus, not my monkeys ~refugee pea #59
Posts: 3,149
Jun 25, 2014 19:51:11 GMT
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Post by back to *pea*ality on Jul 25, 2016 16:04:00 GMT
if election was held today, with almost 57% of the vote according to Nate Silver's 538 blog which I know many of those who follow politics have held in high regard. Link to 538 Election ForecastWith all the trash talk about the RNC Convention, it looks like Trump got a pretty big bump in the poll numbers. They don't even reflect the recent debacle with the DNC emails. The result of which is only going to push more Bernie supporters Trump's way. |
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MizIndependent
Drama Llama
Quit your bullpoop.
Posts: 5,836
Jun 25, 2014 19:43:16 GMT
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Post by MizIndependent on Jul 25, 2016 16:12:05 GMT
Ya...no surprise there, actually. LOVED the spin on Good Morning America this morning, as they were showing Trump LEADING Clinton by 3% and saying they're tied. That's some interesting math there, George.  |
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artsydaisy
Full Member
Posts: 464
Jul 1, 2014 4:55:48 GMT
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Post by artsydaisy on Jul 25, 2016 16:26:47 GMT
Looks like they changed the numbers. I just clicked on the link, and it shows Hillary winning 53.5% to Donald 46.5%.
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Deleted
Posts: 0
May 3, 2024 13:52:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2016 16:28:52 GMT
Looks like they changed the numbers. I just clicked on the link, and it shows Hillary winning 53.5% to Donald 46.5%. There are three models (you can switch between them on the left), the polls-only, polls plus historical data, and "now-cast". They all have different results. The now-cast results show Trump with lead referenced in the OP. |
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Deleted
Posts: 0
May 3, 2024 13:52:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2016 16:28:55 GMT
Yes that is just what I was going to say the numbers must have changed because the link in the OP is now showing Clinton will win 53.5% to Trump 46.5%.
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Deleted
Posts: 0
May 3, 2024 13:52:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2016 16:29:41 GMT
Ya...no surprise there, actually. LOVED the spin on Good Morning America this morning, as they were showing Trump LEADING Clinton by 3% and saying they're tied. That's some interesting math there, George. Well, 3% +/- would probably be within the margin of error, so that is tied. |
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Post by freecharlie on Jul 25, 2016 16:30:44 GMT
Damn it, I'm a battleground state again
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MizIndependent
Drama Llama
Quit your bullpoop.
Posts: 5,836
Jun 25, 2014 19:43:16 GMT
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Post by MizIndependent on Jul 25, 2016 16:32:00 GMT
Ya...no surprise there, actually. LOVED the spin on Good Morning America this morning, as they were showing Trump LEADING Clinton by 3% and saying they're tied. That's some interesting math there, George. Well, 3% +/- would probably be within the margin of error, so that is tied. Ah. Today I learned.  |
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Post by bc2ca on Jul 25, 2016 16:38:01 GMT
I'm seeing the same numbers as artsydaisy and the last update to their data was 50 minutes ago. I do check 538 regularly and noticed that Florida, NH and (I think) OH were all in the blue column yesterday and now are showing red. Not sure which other states might have shifted. back to *pea*ality , why do you think Sanders supporters would now back Trump? The ones I know in real life are going to follow Sanders lead and vote for Clinton (even if they hold their nose while doing it), abstain from voting or vote for Jill Stein. I don't know anyone that is jumping to Trump. ETA Thanks @busypea, I didn't toggle between the options. |
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Post by freecharlie on Jul 25, 2016 16:39:16 GMT
I'm seeing the same numbers as artsydaisy and the last update to their data was 50 minutes ago. I do check 538 regularly and noticed that Florida, NH and (I think) OH were all in the blue column yesterday and now are showing red. Not sure which other states might have shifted. back to *pea*ality, why do you think Sanders supporters would now back Trump? The ones I know in real life are going to follow Sanders lead and vote for Clinton (even if they hold their nose while doing it), abstain from voting or vote for Jill Stein. I don't know anyone that is jumping to Trump. the sanders supporters I know would never vote trump. They may not vote hillary, but they won't vote trump |
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artsydaisy
Full Member
Posts: 464
Jul 1, 2014 4:55:48 GMT
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Post by artsydaisy on Jul 25, 2016 16:40:29 GMT
Looks like they changed the numbers. I just clicked on the link, and it shows Hillary winning 53.5% to Donald 46.5%. There are three models (you can switch between them on the left), the polls-only, polls plus historical data, and "now-cast". They all have different results. The now-cast results show Trump with lead referenced in the OP. OK, now I see it. Thanks! |
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Deleted
Posts: 0
May 3, 2024 13:52:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2016 16:42:08 GMT
I cannot imagine a single Bernie supporter voting for Trump, not even the worst Bernie bros. They may not vote at all because they don't want to vote for Hillary, but I just cannot imagine circumstances where passionate supporters of someone as liberal as Sanders would switch their allegiance to Trump.
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Post by gmcwife1 on Jul 25, 2016 16:42:42 GMT
I just don't think he'll win. As much as many people don't like/trust/etc Hilary, I think many will vote for her as the lesser of two evils.
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Pearl Clutcher
Not my circus, not my monkeys ~refugee pea #59
Posts: 3,149
Jun 25, 2014 19:51:11 GMT
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Post by back to *pea*ality on Jul 25, 2016 16:43:24 GMT
I'm seeing the same numbers as artsydaisy and the last update to their data was 50 minutes ago. I do check 538 regularly and noticed that Florida, NH and (I think) OH were all in the blue column yesterday and now are showing red. Not sure which other states might have shifted. back to *pea*ality , why do you think Sanders supporters would now back Trump? The ones I know in real life are going to follow Sanders lead and vote for Clinton (even if they hold their nose while doing it), abstain from voting or vote for Jill Stein. I don't know anyone that is jumping to Trump. the sanders supporters I know would never vote trump. They may not vote hillary, but they won't vote trump Simply because the 'now cast' numbers wouldn't be so high at almost 57% without them. I am in a battleground state and have been surprised at how many people have told me privately they are voting for Trump, even if it is begrudgingly. |
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Deleted
Posts: 0
May 3, 2024 13:52:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2016 16:45:06 GMT
I cannot imagine a single Bernie supporter voting for Trump, not even the worst Bernie bros. They may not vote at all because they don't want to vote for Hillary, but I just cannot imagine circumstances where passionate supporters of someone as liberal as Sanders would switch their allegiance to Trump. Except the scenario where they want to stick it to the Democrat party. Granted, that would not be the action of someone who is a true Democrat, but many of Bernie's followers are young or first time voters who otherwise aren't invested to vote in the first place and if they are upset enough, it's very likely that they will make a revenge vote. I've seen more than one comment like that on FB. |
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linda~lou
Pearl Clutcher
Keep calm and eat crumpets
Posts: 2,744
Location: Motown but my heart is in San Francisco
Jun 25, 2014 21:57:08 GMT
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Post by linda~lou on Jul 25, 2016 16:50:34 GMT
Keep in mind we haven't had the debates yet. I'm hoping that Hillary eats him for lunch and we'll finally see Trump trying to explain how he's going to actually build his wall and all 'the other things' he promises to do.
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Post by mollycoddle on Jul 25, 2016 16:52:47 GMT
I cannot imagine a single Bernie supporter voting for Trump, not even the worst Bernie bros. They may not vote at all because they don't want to vote for Hillary, but I just cannot imagine circumstances where passionate supporters of someone as liberal as Sanders would switch their allegiance to Trump. Except the scenario where they want to stick it to the Democrat party. Granted, that would not be the action of someone who is a true Democrat, but many of Bernie's followers are young or first time voters who otherwise aren't invested to vote in the first place and if they are upset enough, it's very likely that they will make a revenge vote. I've seen more than one comment like that on FB. I have too. I think that there might be a small percentage 'spite' vote. I was just reading a thread like that on FB. |
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Deleted
Posts: 0
May 3, 2024 13:52:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2016 17:06:27 GMT
I cannot imagine a single Bernie supporter voting for Trump, not even the worst Bernie bros. They may not vote at all because they don't want to vote for Hillary, but I just cannot imagine circumstances where passionate supporters of someone as liberal as Sanders would switch their allegiance to Trump. Except the scenario where they want to stick it to the Democrat party. Granted, that would not be the action of someone who is a true Democrat, but many of Bernie's followers are young or first time voters who otherwise aren't invested to vote in the first place and if they are upset enough, it's very likely that they will make a revenge vote. I've seen more than one comment like that on FB. I look at those comments like most slacktivism - all talk, no action. They may say they'll do it, but I think it's just talk. |
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Post by SockMonkey on Jul 25, 2016 17:15:13 GMT
I cannot imagine a single Bernie supporter voting for Trump, not even the worst Bernie bros. They may not vote at all because they don't want to vote for Hillary, but I just cannot imagine circumstances where passionate supporters of someone as liberal as Sanders would switch their allegiance to Trump. But by voting 3rd party or not voting, they may just IN EFFECT put Trump in office. Hope they feel good about that. Terrifying. SaveSave |
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Post by SockMonkey on Jul 25, 2016 17:16:56 GMT
Keep in mind we haven't had the debates yet. I'm hoping that Hillary eats him for lunch and we'll finally see Trump trying to explain how he's going to actually build his wall and all 'the other things' he promises to do. I hope so. The sad thing is that LOTS of the American people buy in to Trump's battle talk with no substance. Personal attacks. NO policy description. Realistically a lot of Americans do not understand any of the policy talk; they just know Trump is a funny guy who talks like they do. It's so effing scary. SaveSave |
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Nink
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 4,947 
Location: North Idaho
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Post by Nink on Jul 25, 2016 17:23:53 GMT
Keep in mind we haven't had the debates yet. I'm hoping that Hillary eats him for lunch and we'll finally see Trump trying to explain how he's going to actually build his wall and all 'the other things' he promises to do. I'd love to hear an actual plan. All I ever hear is "I know people, I've got great people". Well shit, I know some great people too, that doesn't make me qualified to be President. Tell me your f'ing plan! |
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Pearl Clutcher
Not my circus, not my monkeys ~refugee pea #59
Posts: 3,149
Jun 25, 2014 19:51:11 GMT
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Post by back to *pea*ality on Jul 25, 2016 17:32:01 GMT
Keep in mind we haven't had the debates yet. I'm hoping that Hillary eats him for lunch and we'll finally see Trump trying to explain how he's going to actually build his wall and all 'the other things' he promises to do. I'd love to hear an actual plan. All I ever hear is "I know people, I've got great people". Well shit, I know some great people too, that doesn't make me qualified to be President. Tell me your f'ing plan! That's a fair assessment but we haven't heard much from Hillary Clinton about her plans either. In fact, throughout this process her handlers have literally and figuratively kept the media behind the rope line. All I have seen of her is talking in very controlled interviews and speeches and she doesn't take questions. On the other hand, Trumps handlers can't get him to shut up. I am a bit surprised that the DNC in combination with the Clinton campaign doing everything to diminish the democratic process in the unfair treatment of the Sanders campaign doesn't seem troubling to most of her supporters. I think this has been an eye opener for me on both sides of the aisle on how the primary is rigged by the elite party chiefs and the money that backs them. They all stink to high heaven. |
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Pearl Clutcher
Not my circus, not my monkeys ~refugee pea #59
Posts: 3,149
Jun 25, 2014 19:51:11 GMT
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Post by back to *pea*ality on Jul 25, 2016 17:37:07 GMT
Except the scenario where they want to stick it to the Democrat party. Granted, that would not be the action of someone who is a true Democrat, but many of Bernie's followers are young or first time voters who otherwise aren't invested to vote in the first place and if they are upset enough, it's very likely that they will make a revenge vote. I've seen more than one comment like that on FB. I have too. I think that there might be a small percentage 'spite' vote. I was just reading a thread like that on FB. While I was having lunch, I saw a videoclip on Facebook of a breakfast meeting where Debbie Wasserman Schultz was speaking to the Florida delegation and she was boo'd and some in the crowd were saying 'shame'. I think there is going to be a backlash. I also heard it being reported that Sanders speech for tonight has not been vetted. Anything can happen. I live in the Philly burbs and the Bernie supporters were out in full force with 100 degree temperatures and humidity. They are not giving up and not happy. |
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Post by mollycoddle on Jul 25, 2016 18:04:28 GMT
I have too. I think that there might be a small percentage 'spite' vote. I was just reading a thread like that on FB. While I was having lunch, I saw a videoclip on Facebook of a breakfast meeting where Debbie Wasserman Schultz was speaking to the Florida delegation and she was boo'd and some in the crowd were saying 'shame'. I think there is going to be a backlash. I also heard it being reported that Sanders speech for tonight has not been vetted. Anything can happen. I live in the Philly burbs and the Bernie supporters were out in full force with 100 degree temperatures and humidity. They are not giving up and not happy. Don't I know it. Ugh. There would be a huge backlash from the Hillary voters if something happened. It wouldn't be pretty. They are louder, but we turn out to vote.  |
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Post by gmcwife1 on Jul 25, 2016 18:06:11 GMT
I cannot imagine a single Bernie supporter voting for Trump, not even the worst Bernie bros. They may not vote at all because they don't want to vote for Hillary, but I just cannot imagine circumstances where passionate supporters of someone as liberal as Sanders would switch their allegiance to Trump. But by voting 3rd party or not voting, they may just IN EFFECT put Trump in office. Hope they feel good about that. Terrifying. SaveSaveOnly in some states. People keep saying this, but it's not true of all states. My state has not voted Republican in the past 8 presidential elections. We have had a Democrat as a governor for the last 32 years. My state is very liberal and the voting history shows that. Not all states are the same and not all 3rd party votes will put Trump in the white house. |
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Pearl Clutcher
Not my circus, not my monkeys ~refugee pea #59
Posts: 3,149
Jun 25, 2014 19:51:11 GMT
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Post by back to *pea*ality on Jul 25, 2016 18:13:56 GMT
While I was having lunch, I saw a videoclip on Facebook of a breakfast meeting where Debbie Wasserman Schultz was speaking to the Florida delegation and she was boo'd and some in the crowd were saying 'shame'. I think there is going to be a backlash. I also heard it being reported that Sanders speech for tonight has not been vetted. Anything can happen. I live in the Philly burbs and the Bernie supporters were out in full force with 100 degree temperatures and humidity. They are not giving up and not happy. Don't I know it. Ugh. There would be a huge backlash from the Hillary voters if something happened. It wouldn't be pretty. They are louder, but we turn out to vote. I think that Bernie Sanders supporters are younger and millennial voters who are really independent more than Democrats. I think that is an important distinction because Trump will be able to flip some of them and the others who will see Sanders as selling out will stay home. In a close election, both of those scenario's hurt Clinton and help Trump. It will be interesting to see the reaction to his speech tonight. I just saw Bernie talking to his supporters, some were boo'ing him. Strap in for the ride tonight. |
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Post by mollycoddle on Jul 25, 2016 19:03:25 GMT
Don't I know it. Ugh. There would be a huge backlash from the Hillary voters if something happened. It wouldn't be pretty. They are louder, but we turn out to vote. I think that Bernie Sanders supporters are younger and millennial voters who are really independent more than Democrats. I think that is an important distinction because Trump will be able to flip some of them and the others who will see Sanders as selling out will stay home. In a close election, both of those scenario's hurt Clinton and help Trump. It will be interesting to see the reaction to his speech tonight. I just saw Bernie talking to his supporters, some were boo'ing him. Strap in for the ride tonight. Oh yeah, this is going to be like Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.  |
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MizIndependent
Drama Llama
Quit your bullpoop.
Posts: 5,836
Jun 25, 2014 19:43:16 GMT
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Post by MizIndependent on Jul 25, 2016 20:40:43 GMT
I cannot imagine a single Bernie supporter voting for Trump, not even the worst Bernie bros. They may not vote at all because they don't want to vote for Hillary, but I just cannot imagine circumstances where passionate supporters of someone as liberal as Sanders would switch their allegiance to Trump. I certainly can. It's called the "burn it down" ideology. They consider Trump a political "reset" button, if you will. |
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Post by pierkiss on Jul 25, 2016 20:44:09 GMT
Keep in mind we haven't had the debates yet. I'm hoping that Hillary eats him for lunch and we'll finally see Trump trying to explain how he's going to actually build his wall and all 'the other things' he promises to do. I cannot wait for the debates. I am so curious to hear both of their plans about how to handle a lot of he very real and very serious issues we are dealing with today. I am going to be super pissed if either of them dodge the questions or turn their turns into time to bash the other candidate. I am so sick of the candidate bashing. Just tell us your plans. That's it. |
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MizIndependent
Drama Llama
Quit your bullpoop.
Posts: 5,836
Jun 25, 2014 19:43:16 GMT
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Post by MizIndependent on Jul 25, 2016 20:44:29 GMT
While I was having lunch, I saw a videoclip on Facebook of a breakfast meeting where Debbie Wasserman Schultz was speaking to the Florida delegation and she was boo'd and some in the crowd were saying 'shame'. I think there is going to be a backlash. I also heard it being reported that Sanders speech for tonight has not been vetted. Anything can happen. I live in the Philly burbs and the Bernie supporters were out in full force with 100 degree temperatures and humidity. They are not giving up and not happy. Don't I know it. Ugh. There would be a huge backlash from the Hillary voters if something happened. It wouldn't be pretty. They are louder, but we turn out to vote. Bring it on. My dream would be for Sanders to disavow Clinton and the Democrats and to announce that he is leaving the Democrats to take Jill Stein up on her invitation for him to be the candidate for the Green Party. SANDERS/STEIN 2016!!! (<----it even freaking rhymes!) (I can dream pretty big) |
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