rodeomom
Pearl Clutcher
Refupee # 380 "I don't have to run fast, I just have to run faster than you."
Posts: 3,718
Location: Chickasaw Nation, Oklahoma
Jun 25, 2014 23:34:38 GMT
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Post by rodeomom on Oct 30, 2020 0:32:44 GMT
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FurryP
Prolific Pea
To pea or not to pea...
Posts: 7,797
Site Supporter
Jun 26, 2014 19:58:26 GMT
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Post by FurryP on Oct 30, 2020 0:48:43 GMT
Stop it! Lalalalalalala.... I can't hear you.
Anyway..... there are a lot of people that are not responding or being asked, so the polls can mean something, or nothing. At least that is what I tell myself.
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Post by megop on Oct 30, 2020 0:50:38 GMT
I trust fivethirtyeight.com who statistically takes all that kind of stuff into account with their modeling of a variety of polls. I think Michael Moore is campaigning so potential Biden voters stay motivated to get out and vote.
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breetheflea
Drama Llama
Posts: 7,316 
Location: PNW
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Post by breetheflea on Oct 30, 2020 0:51:02 GMT
I believe in both the North and South poles.
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Post by Lexica on Oct 30, 2020 0:51:27 GMT
What are the Polish saying? Sorry, couldn't help it. And NO I don't believe Trump will win. I can't even let my mind go there.
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Post by sasha on Oct 30, 2020 0:54:45 GMT
I didn't think he was going to beat Clinton and yet woke up to the terrible news. I would not count him out at all.
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Post by Darcy Collins on Oct 30, 2020 0:56:39 GMT
I trust fivethirtyeight.com who statistically takes all that kind of stuff into account with their modeling of a variety of polls. I think Michael Moore is campaigning so potential Biden voters stay motivated to get out and vote. I remember him in 2016 being so damn pissed that the Clinton campaign wasn't campaigning aggressively in the rust belt. I hope he's just rallying the base and reminding them to not be complacent. |
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rodeomom
Pearl Clutcher
Refupee # 380 "I don't have to run fast, I just have to run faster than you."
Posts: 3,718
Location: Chickasaw Nation, Oklahoma
Jun 25, 2014 23:34:38 GMT
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Post by rodeomom on Oct 30, 2020 0:57:39 GMT
I trust fivethirtyeight.com who statistically takes all that kind of stuff into account with their modeling of a variety of polls. I think Michael Moore is campaigning so potential Biden voters stay motivated to get out and vote. Man I hope you're right. But he was saying that in 2016. |
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janeliz
Drama Llama
I'm the Wiz and nobody beats me.
Posts: 5,666
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Post by janeliz on Oct 30, 2020 1:01:47 GMT
I’ve stopped looking at the polls, and I’m just keeping my head down and trying not to go nuts.
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Post by megop on Oct 30, 2020 1:03:40 GMT
I trust fivethirtyeight.com who statistically takes all that kind of stuff into account with their modeling of a variety of polls. I think Michael Moore is campaigning so potential Biden voters stay motivated to get out and vote. Man I hope you're right. But he was saying that in 2016. Honestly, in 2016, what I think the failure of the polling was accounting for people saying they would vote, but didn't because they really didn't believe Trump would ever get elected because it just was so ridiculous in their minds. You also had the Saunders supporters a bit disgruntled at the time after coming off the high of the Obama administration and the movement accomplished with the ACA. Just my opinion. No actual data behind it. |
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Post by Skellinton on Oct 30, 2020 1:03:49 GMT
I think Trump is going to win. His base is rabid.
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Post by padresfan619 on Oct 30, 2020 1:03:59 GMT
I don’t believe the polls and I am not confident it is a landslide as much as people have been saying. The silent majority is a real thing.
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Post by epeanymous on Oct 30, 2020 1:05:28 GMT
Stoooooooop.
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rodeomom
Pearl Clutcher
Refupee # 380 "I don't have to run fast, I just have to run faster than you."
Posts: 3,718
Location: Chickasaw Nation, Oklahoma
Jun 25, 2014 23:34:38 GMT
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Post by rodeomom on Oct 30, 2020 1:15:04 GMT
We also don't know how the tricks and underhanded stuff that the Republicans are doing with the mail is going to effect the count.
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Post by bc2ca on Oct 30, 2020 1:16:56 GMT
The USC Daybreak Poll was one of the few that predicted the 2016 GOP win. It is predicting a Biden/Harris win. LA Times Daybreak Poll |
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Post by megop on Oct 30, 2020 1:19:42 GMT
I don’t believe the polls and I am not confident it is a landslide as much as people have been saying. The silent majority is a real thing. May not be a landslide, but I am confident the silent majority works both ways and remember, high voter turnout benefits Biden statistically. But I do agree with another poster above, all bets are off with the BS that Trump will try to pull over the mail in ballots. Now THAT to me is a legit fear. |
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Post by Merge on Oct 30, 2020 1:27:34 GMT
I can't think about it. I voted, I've been working for candidates here, I've done my part. With all that's going on at work/school right now, I can't dwell on the polls or the maybes.
We have next Tuesday off from school, and I plan to spend the entire day making my plans for the rest of the semester to keep my mind off of things.
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Post by Crack-a-lackin on Oct 30, 2020 1:40:49 GMT
After 2016 I don’t believe anything. But stressing over which poll is accurate isn’t doing anyone good. We’ve done everything we can at this point. Now, im keeping myself distracted to get through this next week. And, pray this country I love still has a hope of recovering.
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Post by iamkristinl16 on Oct 30, 2020 1:51:01 GMT
I'm trying not to pay attention to the polls and am just being cautiously optimistic. CNN has had people on talking about paths to victory and I just change the channel. It means little at this point. I don't want to hear about who is ahead now and then be surprised again next week.
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Post by chaosisapony on Oct 30, 2020 1:52:05 GMT
No, I have never put much stock in the polls. I have lost all faith in humanity this year, it would not surprise me one bit to see a Trump win.
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tracylynn
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 4,905
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Post by tracylynn on Oct 30, 2020 1:56:32 GMT
I'm not a poll watcher anymore. I have read some articles that are pointing out the differences between the Biden lead and the Clinton lead though. They are really interesting to read and lend credibility to the Biden leads.
I'd love a landslide.
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Post by papersilly on Oct 30, 2020 2:04:59 GMT
They keep saying polling has improved since the last time. They keep saying they now have weighted votes for those undereducated they glossed over last time. They say they are taking into consideration that Trump voters don't like doing polls. Regardless, I'm nervous as hell.
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Post by hopemax on Oct 30, 2020 2:12:48 GMT
I believe the polls. I also do not believe the polls were as "wrong" in 2016 assigned to them in people's brains. Considering how many people play Powerball when odds of winning are as miniscule as they are, people should have understood that a 28.6% chance of winning (which is what 538 assigned to Trump's chances in 2016) is not a guarantee of outcome in favor for the person who has the 71.4%. Or COVID percentages. If 1 out of 3 or 4 people would experience serious COVID complications many people here wouldn't leave their house. That is what Trump's chances were in 2016. The polls were about 4% wrong. 2-3% is considered a normal standard of error, so a little outside.
Another thing people have to remember is that in 2016, going into election day 20% of people said they were undecided. This time it's 5%. 20% provides for a lot more volatility and unexpected outcomes.
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