Shell says its oil production has peaked ...

Merge  Does your dh work in the oil industry?

Yes, my dh just retired from 35 years in the oil and gas industry. It is a hot-button. You don't have to like it, but we need it.

Light duty vehicle sales also peaked in 2016. They may go back up there sometime, but not for a while. The kids are OK w/car shares, powered bikes, walking, transit, etc.

www.statista.com/statistics/199983/us-vehicle-sales-since-1951/

Follow Bloomberg New Energy Finance for the insiders view of the next 20 years.

And this thread had a lot of good sites too: 2peasrefugees.boards.net/thread/106663/game-over-oil

ps - Appalachian fracking boom didn’t lead to prosperity. A new report from the Ohio River Valley Institute finds that despite a natural gas boom over the past decade, the counties in Appalachia that saw the most drilling actually saw worse job growth than elsewhere. The conclusions undercut the notion that the shale gas industry is a job engine. ohiorivervalleyinstitute.org/new-report-natural-gas-county-economies-suffered-as-production-boomed/

Brent is up over $60 right now due to production cuts. That helps ease the pressure on producers - but for how long?

my like isn't that I like that he is out of work, but is for agreement that I know many people in oil and gas

I work in the natural gas industry, and have for my whole career.

While the majority of us want to do better for the environment, most people simply are not ready to give up their SUVs, turn off the heaters to their swimming pools, eliminate their use of plastics and polyester, etc. We need energy even when the sun doesn’t shine and wind doesn’t blow, and we need rapid-response technology to respond to the power surges required for heavy industry. The majority of our electricity in North America comes from oil and gas - too many people cry ‘Electrify everything!’ without realizing that.

The good news is that it doesn’t have to be an either-or proposition. We are investing heavily in greening the natural gas supply. We’re partnering with renewable natural gas generators to add carbon-neutral off-gas from food scraps and bio waste into our pipelines, and we’re blending hydrogen with our natural gas supply - burning hydrogen doesn’t release any CO2 into the atmosphere. I do think oil and gas production has peaked, for reasons like these.

I don’t feel defensive because my livelihood is threatened; I can transfer my skills within the energy industry, and beyond. But I do think people need to be realistic. It’s easy to sing the praises of moving off of non-renewable resources, but it’s not a simple task.

We have been driving our electric cars for 5 years now with no issues. We aren't great candidates for solar because we are north facing and have lots of trees, but we are trying to find as many ways as we can to move away from oil and gas produced things as we can.

Reminds me of when McKensey's cell phone prediction for AT&T:

Economist from 1999: www.economist.com/special-report/1999/10/07/cutting-the-cord

"In the early 1980s AT&T asked McKinsey to estimate how many cellular phones would be in use in the world at the turn of the century. The consultancy noted all the problems with the new devices—the handsets were absurdly heavy, the batteries kept running out, the coverage was patchy and the cost per minute was exorbitant—and concluded that the total market would be about 900,000. At the time this persuaded AT&T to pull out of the market"

or here:https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/09/02/in-a-new-book-mckinsey-co-isnt-all-roses/


" It told AT&T in 1980 that it expected the market for cellphones in the United States in 2000 would amount to only 900,000 subscribers. It turned out to be 109 million. The list goes on."

McKinsey is one of the best of the best of the "top line" consulting firms.

The moral of the story is:

THE FUTURE WILL LOOK NOTHING LIKE THE PRESENT WHEN IT COMES TO TECH.

To take today and extrapolate it forward 10 years is to be beyond idiotic.