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Post by CardBoxer on Apr 21, 2021 20:35:41 GMT
It’s not 90% effective - it’s a 95% efficacy rate (if Pfizer), which means (according to the article below and others) that vaccinated people had a 95% lower risk of getting COVID-19 than people in the control group who were not vaccinated. *But not everyone in the control group got covid.* That is much better than being 95% effective. “One common misunderstanding is that 95% efficacy means that in the Pfizer clinical trial, 5% of vaccinated people got COVID. But that's not true; the actual percentage of vaccinated people in the Pfizer (and Moderna) trials who got COVID-19 was about a hundred times less than that: 0.04%.” Link again: www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.htmlI put %90+ because each vaccine is a different percentage above 90. I said ‘depending on which vaccine’ Right, I understand. But no matter what the % is - 90, 95 or any other number - that number does not give you the percentage of vaccinated people who are likely to get covid. IOW it’s not 90% or 95% efficacy. It’s much better. IOW 90% doesn’t not mean 10% of vaccinated people would get covid. The article in the link explains it far better than I can, or someone else can jump in because talking math is so not my strength, and it took me some time and a couple talks with my DH for the aha moment.
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ashley
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 3,571
Jun 17, 2016 12:36:53 GMT
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Post by ashley on Apr 21, 2021 20:39:43 GMT
I am curious if the vaccines will also protect against those long term issues people with COVID have had... organ damage, etc. So if you’ve been vaccinated and still get Covid, I understand it is unlikely you’ll need to be hospitalized. But given that asymptomatic cases often show lasting damage, will the vaccine also prevent that lasting damage?
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Post by hop2 on Apr 21, 2021 20:40:13 GMT
I put %90+ because each vaccine is a different percentage above 90. I said ‘depending on which vaccine’ Right, I understand. But no matter what the % is - 90, 95 or any other number - that number does not give you the percentage of vaccinated people who are likely to get covid. IOW it’s not 90% or 95% effective. It’s much better. 90% does not mean 10% of vaccinated people would get covid. It’s 10% of the number of unvaccinated trial participants who got covid. *But those unvaccinated people in the trial didn’t all get covid.* The article in the link explains it far better than I can, or someone else can jump in because talking math is so not my strength, and it took me some time and a couple talks with my DH for the aha moment. I still don’t understand why your bickering with me about this. I specifically left the % not specific because each vaccination has a different % and the CDC info of how many breakthroughs cases and how many died do not specify which vaccines they received. I have no idea which of those breakthroughs cases had which vaccine so I can’t be using a specific percentage to talk about it. It encompasses at least 3 different vaccines. But by the numbers the vaccines are doing a pretty decent job.
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Post by sleepingbooty on Apr 21, 2021 20:40:24 GMT
So far, the answer remains yes. There appears to be a 80% transmission rate lowering after being fully vaccinated for the mRNA vaccines but it's currently being studied and we won't have a more definitive answer on this matter for quite some time. Another reason for vaccinated people to keep strict hygiene barriers with non-vaccinated people. My mother's doctor told her to keep ventilating, strict reciprocal mask-wearing and physical distancing when seeing me (I won't be eligible until summer where I live whereas she's fully vaccinated now). Do you have a link to some documentation for that? My parents keep insisting you can't spread it once you are vaccinated and I just keep telling them that hasn't been determined yet. Assuming your parents are in the US, the CDC's page on fully vaccinated people should do the trick. Scroll down to 'Real world vaccine effectiveness' and then table 1b 'Effectiveness against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission'. ETA: This NYT article from earlier this month also explains the issue with knowing exactly where we stand on the matter. ETA2: Harvard's official recommendations also explicitly state:
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Post by maryland on Apr 21, 2021 20:51:10 GMT
I too was surprised to hear there were that many cases and surprised that there were any deaths. I know it was possible, but to be honest I was still a little suprised. It makes me want to be vaccinated even more.
Even after getting vaccinated, I will just continue to wear a mask and avoid gatherings, and pretty much keep doing what we have been doing the past year (no visitors, no trips to stay at relatives houses, etc.). Maybe a year from now when most of the population is vaccinated, I will go back to normal. But I am happy to plan a vaccine appt (hopefully Johnson and Johnson on Friday!), and keep up what I have been doing. I am just happy the vaccine is working so well! And protects us against the variants.
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Post by maryland on Apr 21, 2021 20:52:57 GMT
I am curious if the vaccines will also protect against those long term issues people with COVID have had... organ damage, etc. So if you’ve been vaccinated and still get Covid, I understand it is unlikely you’ll need to be hospitalized. But given that asymptomatic cases often show lasting damage, will the vaccine also prevent that lasting damage? I was curious about that too! Like if I am vaccinated and get covid, I won't have the loss of smell and taste, or other more serious problems. That I will just be assymptomatic. I feel like I learn more every day about this and I am by no means scientifically educated, so I know I sound dumb with a lot of my statements and questions.
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Post by CardBoxer on Apr 21, 2021 20:56:14 GMT
Right, I understand. But no matter what the % is - 90, 95 or any other number - that number does not give you the percentage of vaccinated people who are likely to get covid. IOW it’s not 90% or 95% effective. It’s much better. 90% does not mean 10% of vaccinated people would get covid. It’s 10% of the number of unvaccinated trial participants who got covid. *But those unvaccinated people in the trial didn’t all get covid.* The article in the link explains it far better than I can, or someone else can jump in because talking math is so not my strength, and it took me some time and a couple talks with my DH for the aha moment. I still don’t understand why your bickering with me about this. I specifically left the % not specific because each vaccination has a different % and the CDC info of how many breakthroughs cases and how many died do not specify which vaccines they received. I have no idea which of those breakthroughs cases had which vaccine so I can’t be using a specific percentage to talk about it. It encompasses at least 3 different vaccines. But by the numbers the vaccines are doing a pretty decent job. I apologize if it seems like I’m bickering. I was trying to clarify since so many of us - myself included - have misunderstood what that percentage means - whether it’s 90, 95, 60, any other number, when it’s actually even better. But I’m a lousy explainer so will stop and eat a donut. Another article for anyone who’s interested: www.businessinsider.com/what-is-vaccine-efficacy-how-well-shots-prevent-infections-2020-11
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Post by christine58 on Apr 21, 2021 20:58:57 GMT
I was curious about that too! Like if I am vaccinated and get covid, I won't have the loss of smell and taste, or other more serious problems. That I will just be assymptomatic. I feel like I learn more every day about this and I am by no means scientifically educated, so I know I sound dumb with a lot of my statements and questions. Not sure that logic is true at all. Loss of smell and taste is not a serious issue like being hospitalized. I have not read anything that says with the vaccine you'd just be asymptomatic. What has been said is that hospitalization and death is less likely with the vaccine.
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Post by jennifercw on Apr 21, 2021 21:17:33 GMT
Thank you sleepingbooty. I'll check out those links. Appreciate you posting them!
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Post by maryland on Apr 21, 2021 21:24:56 GMT
I was curious about that too! Like if I am vaccinated and get covid, I won't have the loss of smell and taste, or other more serious problems. That I will just be assymptomatic. I feel like I learn more every day about this and I am by no means scientifically educated, so I know I sound dumb with a lot of my statements and questions. Not sure that logic is true at all. Loss of smell and taste is not a serious issue like being hospitalized. I have not read anything that says with the vaccine you'd just be asymptomatic. What has been said is that hospitalization and death is less likely with the vaccine. And that's why I said I know I am dumb about this stuff. And I am going to keep doing what I have been doing and not doing what fully vaccinated people are told they can do. I don't want to take any chances of getting covid. I know loss of taste and smell is nothing, but I really don't want that. So I am happy to keep acting as if I am not vaccinated even when I am (wearing masks, hand sanitizing, no gatherings, no trips).
I just realized I forgot to put question marks after some of my sentences, so I can see why they made no sense! Again, I am not the brightest lightbulb that's for sure!  So many intelligent people on this board and I am embarrassed to comment a lot.
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Post by sleepingbooty on Apr 21, 2021 21:31:20 GMT
I am just happy the vaccine is working so well! And protects us against the variants. Protection against variants is not only not guaranteed but contracts are already underway with the main vaccine providers like Pfizer for variant booster shots. The current vaccines are unlikely to hold up against some of the currently already existing variants (at least not at the efficacy rate for the initial strains) or future ones. I don't think people understand the amount of variants popping up right now. 92 for Brazil alone.
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Post by sleepingbooty on Apr 21, 2021 21:32:12 GMT
Thank you sleepingbooty . I'll check out those links. Appreciate you posting them! Spread science facts, not the virus!
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Post by jennifercw on Apr 21, 2021 22:46:34 GMT
Thank you sleepingbooty . I'll check out those links. Appreciate you posting them! Spread science facts, not the virus! 1000%!!! I've been following two Instagrammers during the pandemic that are really great at communicating the data and debunking all the nonsense out there. I do realize it sounds super strange to follow Instagrammers for that! But Laurel Bristow is an infectious disease specialist and clinical research coordinator at Emory's Vaccine & Treatment Evaluation Unit and Jessica Malaty Rivera has an MS in Emerging Infectious Diseases from Georgetown University and works with the COVID Tracking Project. I've really appreciated all their science facts.
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Post by sam9 on Apr 21, 2021 23:21:30 GMT
The more people who do NOT get vaccinated the more variants will develope, which will affect ALL of us!! Hence why we need to mass export vaccines ASAP. Whatever tens of millions the richer countries have offered so far is not enough. When I hear that certain parts of Africa aren't expected to have basic access to a Covid-19 vaccine until 2025, I shudder. As Westerners, we need to do better and quick. This. Times a million. It's so disappointing to see the USA stockpiling vaccines and not looking past its own nose.
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Post by maryland on Apr 21, 2021 23:25:52 GMT
I am just happy the vaccine is working so well! And protects us against the variants. Protection against variants is not only not guaranteed but contracts are already underway with the main vaccine providers like Pfizer for variant booster shots. The current vaccines are unlikely to hold up against some of the currently already existing variants (at least not at the efficacy rate for the initial strains) or future ones. I don't think people understand the amount of variants popping up right now. 92 for Brazil alone. I was able to get an appt. for two weeks from today for pfizer. But just found out this evening that our local costco will start vaccinating people tomorrow and they have moderna (and it's 5 min. away v. 45 min away). I don't know which I should get, pfizer or moderna. I have a lot of research to do tonight. I am still hoping Johnson and Johnson is approved in a couple days as our local target has that. With all the variants you mentioned, I am so happy to be getting vaccinated soon, and still maintain my double masking, and avoiding everyone but my husband and kids (who live with us).
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Post by christine58 on Apr 21, 2021 23:52:58 GMT
Protection against variants is not only not guaranteed but contracts are already underway with the main vaccine providers like Pfizer for variant booster shots. The current vaccines are unlikely to hold up against some of the currently already existing variants (at least not at the efficacy rate for the initial strains) or future ones. I don't think people understand the amount of variants popping up right now. 92 for Brazil alone. I was able to get an appt. for two weeks from today for pfizer. But just found out this evening that our local costco will start vaccinating people tomorrow and they have moderna (and it's 5 min. away v. 45 min away). I don't know which I should get, pfizer or moderna. I have a lot of research to do tonight. I am still hoping Johnson and Johnson is approved in a couple days as our local target has that. With all the variants you mentioned, I am so happy to be getting vaccinated soon, and still maintain my double masking, and avoiding everyone but my husband and kids (who live with us). Either Pfizer or Moderna. I would not wait for J&J. More blood clot cases have been identified
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tracylynn
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 4,905
Jun 26, 2014 22:49:09 GMT
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Post by tracylynn on Apr 21, 2021 23:57:35 GMT
Hence why we need to mass export vaccines ASAP. Whatever tens of millions the richer countries have offered so far is not enough. When I hear that certain parts of Africa aren't expected to have basic access to a Covid-19 vaccine until 2025, I shudder. As Westerners, we need to do better and quick. This. Times a million. It's so disappointing to see the USA stockpiling vaccines and not looking past its own nose. While I understand the need to make sure everyone in the World has access, I think in the first several months it's prudent for ANY Country to protect it's people first. The US has 250+ million people who need vaccinated. We are the 3rd most populated Country in the World. We already have our own variants, which need to be squashed. We need to get our own house together first. We have given $4 billion to COVAX to help distribution across the World. And we also sent vaccines to Canada and Mexico. It's not like we're not doing nothing to help others. Once everyone in the US who has a vaccine that wants one, I absolutely think it's prudent that we start distributing outside our borders. But to be disappointed in the USA 4 months into this process is a little hasty in my opinion.
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valincal
Drama Llama

Southern Alberta
Posts: 6,225
Jun 27, 2014 2:21:22 GMT
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Post by valincal on Apr 22, 2021 0:32:33 GMT
But given that asymptomatic cases often show lasting damage, will the vaccine also prevent that lasting damage? I’m confused...first off, how do the asymptomatic people know they have Covid? And if they are asymptomatic, what kind of lasting damage at they experiencing? Do they suddenly become symptomatic? The whole thing makes my head spin. 🤪
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Post by sleepingbooty on Apr 22, 2021 0:42:07 GMT
But to be disappointed in the USA 4 months into this process is a little hasty in my opinion. Other countries and parts of the world (the EU is 448 million people) have been exporting vaccines as soon as manufacturing began. The USA did apply the America First strategy and it's one that isn't looked at favourably internationally. It's an understandable choice but it's a more than debatable one in the face of the pandemic. You can agree with it but you can also see how it's a dangerous, selfish one. It's culturally very American and I do wish from a very self-centered POV my nook of the world had done the same since I'm at least still two months away from a first shot but I also don't want deliveries abroad to stop even if we don't have enough for our own adult population. The wastefulness of vaccine doses being thrown away at the end of the day in certain parts of the US is absolutely heartbreaking from this side of the world where we're desperate for some. Again, selfishly, I wish. But it's a pandemic so I have to stand by mass exportation as soon as manufacturing begins. Giving money to Covax is not the same as delivering doses right now. People need to understand that you cannot buy back lives lost, organs damaged for life, dangerous variants forming and spreading (right back to us eventually).
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Post by sleepingbooty on Apr 22, 2021 0:44:49 GMT
I was able to get an appt. for two weeks from today for pfizer. But just found out this evening that our local costco will start vaccinating people tomorrow and they have moderna (and it's 5 min. away v. 45 min away). I don't know which I should get, pfizer or moderna. I have a lot of research to do tonight. I am still hoping Johnson and Johnson is approved in a couple days as our local target has that. With all the variants you mentioned, I am so happy to be getting vaccinated soon, and still maintain my double masking, and avoiding everyone but my husband and kids (who live with us). Either Pfizer or Moderna. I would not wait for J&J. More blood clot cases have been identified Pfizer and Moderna boast the same tech, very similar efficacy rates. Both are good bets. If you're under 55, especially a woman, I'd go with christine58's recommendation of skipping the Janssen by J&J.
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Post by mcjunkin on Apr 22, 2021 0:44:52 GMT
I’m confused...first off, how do the asymptomatic people know they have Covid? And if they are asymptomatic, what kind of lasting damage at they experiencing? Do they suddenly become symptomatic? The whole thing makes my head spin. 🤪 Anyone giving blood now is screen for antibodies. Lots of people are finding out that way. Also, some are getting antibody tests out of curiosity. My son did that, and had antibodies. No symptoms whatsoever in the last several months.
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ashley
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 3,571
Jun 17, 2016 12:36:53 GMT
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Post by ashley on Apr 22, 2021 1:02:37 GMT
But given that asymptomatic cases often show lasting damage, will the vaccine also prevent that lasting damage? I’m confused...first off, how do the asymptomatic people know they have Covid? And if they are asymptomatic, what kind of lasting damage at they experiencing? Do they suddenly become symptomatic? The whole thing makes my head spin. 🤪 Studies... follow up scans and antibody testing to confirm COVID infection. There’s lots of info out there about it, it’s been reported on since early in the pandemic. Lung scarring and heart scarring are two of the major issues.
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seaexplore
Prolific Pea
 
Posts: 9,366
Apr 25, 2015 23:57:30 GMT
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Post by seaexplore on Apr 22, 2021 1:09:20 GMT
One of my friends had covid, later got the shots, and then later got covid again. Were they less sick the 2nd time? Not that you can really tell if the effects on the 2nd infection came from the previous infection or vaccination, I'm just curious.
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Post by tentoes on Apr 22, 2021 1:11:03 GMT
One of my friends had covid, later got the shots, and then later got covid again. Were they less sick the 2nd time? Not that you can really tell if the effects on the 2nd infection came from the previous infection or vaccination, I'm just curious. No, not as sick.
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Post by maryland on Apr 22, 2021 1:23:31 GMT
I was able to get an appt. for two weeks from today for pfizer. But just found out this evening that our local costco will start vaccinating people tomorrow and they have moderna (and it's 5 min. away v. 45 min away). I don't know which I should get, pfizer or moderna. I have a lot of research to do tonight. I am still hoping Johnson and Johnson is approved in a couple days as our local target has that. With all the variants you mentioned, I am so happy to be getting vaccinated soon, and still maintain my double masking, and avoiding everyone but my husband and kids (who live with us). Either Pfizer or Moderna. I would not wait for J&J. More blood clot cases have been identified But I keep hearing that J&J is safe and that the blood clots are very very rare. I feel as comfortable getting that now as I do Pfizer and Moderna. I also like that I only have to get one shot and am fully vaccinated in 2 weeks. I want to go with my fully vaccinated husband and daughter next month to move her into her apt. (5 hrs. away) to start her masters in public health. Also to attend my daughter's high school graduation ceremony (outside and with limited guests spread out). I wouldn't feel comfortable doing either without being fully vaccinated (to protect others as well as myself). That's why I plan to go with J&J if possible. If they decide not to do J%J any more, I will get pfizer. But I understand that people who may be at high risk for blood clots or who may not be comfortable with the vaccine may not want Johnson and Johnson.
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Sarah*H
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 4,098
Jun 25, 2014 20:07:06 GMT
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Post by Sarah*H on Apr 22, 2021 1:28:12 GMT
Protection against variants is not only not guaranteed but contracts are already underway with the main vaccine providers like Pfizer for variant booster shots. The current vaccines are unlikely to hold up against some of the currently already existing variants (at least not at the efficacy rate for the initial strains) or future ones. I don't think people understand the amount of variants popping up right now. 92 for Brazil alone. I was able to get an appt. for two weeks from today for pfizer. But just found out this evening that our local costco will start vaccinating people tomorrow and they have moderna (and it's 5 min. away v. 45 min away). I don't know which I should get, pfizer or moderna. I have a lot of research to do tonight. I am still hoping Johnson and Johnson is approved in a couple days as our local target has that. With all the variants you mentioned, I am so happy to be getting vaccinated soon, and still maintain my double masking, and avoiding everyone but my husband and kids (who live with us). You can get a walk up appointment at a clinic tomorrow. I'd also take a look at what Mainline Pharmacy still has available for the weekend and even just check the Walgreen's site. My husband and daughter had 2nd vaccine appointments which weren't that convenient and I got them scheduled at Walgreen's instead. Supply overtakes demand in Allegheny County
Mainline pharmacy scheduler
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Post by christine58 on Apr 22, 2021 1:32:31 GMT
Either Pfizer or Moderna. I would not wait for J&J. More blood clot cases have been identified But I keep hearing that J&J is safe and that the blood clots are very very rare. I feel as comfortable getting that now as I do Pfizer and Moderna. I also like that I only have to get one shot and am fully vaccinated in 2 weeks. I want to go with my fully vaccinated husband and daughter next month to move her into her apt. (5 hrs. away) to start her masters in public health. Also to attend my daughter's high school graduation ceremony (outside and with limited guests spread out). I wouldn't feel comfortable doing either without being fully vaccinated (to protect others as well as myself). That's why I plan to go with J&J if possible. If they decide not to do J%J any more, I will get pfizer. But I understand that people who may be at high risk for blood clots or who may not be comfortable with the vaccine may not want Johnson and Johnson. And what would you do if the Johnson and Johnson isn’t approved on Friday. Maybe it’s three weeks from now that it gets approved. I would take any shot I could get right now if I were you. If you can get a shot tomorrow or the next day take it. There’s no guarantee that the Johnson and Johnson one will be approved for usage with precautions on Friday.
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Sarah*H
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 4,098
Jun 25, 2014 20:07:06 GMT
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Post by Sarah*H on Apr 22, 2021 1:33:03 GMT
Recognizing that all 3 vaccines currently available are good options, Pfizer and Moderna both put you above 80% efficacy 2 weeks after the first dose. While obviously you should still take precautions, this puts you at or above the same level of protection as the J&J shot. I would not change your plans about helping your daughter move or attending graduation based on only being halfway through the Pfizer or Moderna protocol. CDC study about effectiveness after 1 dose
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Post by lucyg on Apr 22, 2021 1:54:37 GMT
If a vaccine is 95% effective (and that’s an amazingly high rate), and if 86.3 million people have been fully vaccinated, then I would think we might expect around 4.3 million cases. If my math is correct. I wish journalists would explain this better. It took me a while to get it. 95% efficacy doesn’t mean 5% of vaccinated people may get covid. It means that in the clinical trial, the number of people who got covid in the vaccinated group was 5% of the number of people who got covid in the unvaccinated (placebo) group. But not everyone in the placebo group got covid. From the article in the link below: “One common misunderstanding is that 95% efficacy means that in the Pfizer clinical trial, 5% of vaccinated people got COVID. But that's not true; the actual percentage of vaccinated people in the Pfizer (and Moderna) trials who got COVID-19 was about a hundred times less than that: 0.04%.” That’s 4/100ths of 1 percent. www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.htmlthank you! I was worried that I wasn’t interpreting the percentage correctly. ETA thanks also to hopemax 
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Post by maryland on Apr 22, 2021 2:05:24 GMT
I was able to get an appt. for two weeks from today for pfizer. But just found out this evening that our local costco will start vaccinating people tomorrow and they have moderna (and it's 5 min. away v. 45 min away). I don't know which I should get, pfizer or moderna. I have a lot of research to do tonight. I am still hoping Johnson and Johnson is approved in a couple days as our local target has that. With all the variants you mentioned, I am so happy to be getting vaccinated soon, and still maintain my double masking, and avoiding everyone but my husband and kids (who live with us). You can get a walk up appointment at a clinic tomorrow. I'd also take a look at what Mainline Pharmacy still has available for the weekend and even just check the Walgreen's site. My husband and daughter had 2nd vaccine appointments which weren't that convenient and I got them scheduled at Walgreen's instead. Supply overtakes demand in Allegheny County
Mainline pharmacy schedulerThanks! I did hear on wtae that in Allegheny county you can go to a different location which is wonderful! I got my daughter's first dose of pfizer at a Rite Aid in Allegheny County on Sat. I am hoping she can switch to one even closer to home for her second dose. Thanks for the links!
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