If the 2024 election is Biden vs Trump

The impact of young voters

In 2022, young voters turned out big time in the swing states. If the election comes down to Trump vs Biden again, I think young voters will turn out again. In 2024, there will be more young voters than in 2016 and I think they will help the Democrats win the swing states in 2024. I think Biden has a good chance of keeping the blue wall blue and winning PA, Michigan and Wisconsin again. Young voters are more motivated by issues like climate change and abortion. Democrats just need to focus on the issues. The sh&t storm that is coming for Republicans with Trump's trials should provide a clear contrast and reality for independent and moderate voters.

www.npr.org/2022/11/15/1136563709/young-voters-helped-democrats-win-the-senate-and-other-midterm-elections

circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center

Top Turnout States: Michigan had the highest youth turnout in the country (37%), with Minnesota, Maine, Oregon, and Colorado also above 30%.

Four States Surpassed 2018: Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, and Arkansas were the only states to have a higher youth turnout in 2022 than in 2018. In those first three states, Democrats won competitive statewide races for governor and/or U.S. Senate.

Republican narrative of Biden as the worst president are pushing Republican voters to Trump and might be an opportunity for Democrats.

www.nytimes.com/2023/08/20/us/politics/biden-trump-republican-primary.html

How G.O.P. Views of Biden Are Helping Trump in the Republican Primary
In interviews and polling, many Republican voters believe President Biden is so weak that picking the most electable candidate to beat him no longer matters.

For months, Republican voters have consumed such a steady diet of clips of Mr. Biden stumbling, over words and sandbags, that they now see the 80-year-old Democratic incumbent as so frail that he would be beatable by practically any Republican — even a four-times-indicted former president who lost the last election.

Some Republicans worry that their voters have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about the challenge of beating a Democratic incumbent president. The last one to lose was Jimmy Carter more than four decades ago.



Another analysis from Simon Rosenberg about how the Republican talking points on the worst presidency in history (Biden's )are collapsing. Some of this might be wishful thinking, this guy is saying what I want to hear, but he has some really valid points. There's a lot more, these are just the highlights.

simonwdc.substack.com/p/the-right-wing-narrative-about-biden

As we discussed last week (here, here), we are witnessing what may be a historic meltdown on the right side of the American political spectrum. Let’s review:

Republican leaders are choosing to once again excuse and embrace Trump’s epic malevolence and ongoing betrayal of the country
McCarthy has lost control of the House, and may never get it back
the backlash to DeSantis’ extremist agenda in Florida is growing, as it should
a war has broken out between Fox News and Musk/Twitter/Tucker Carlson, just weeks after Fox was essentially found guilty of lying and helping stoke a domestic insurrection in the United States
the leader of CPAC, one of the right’s most influential organizations, has been accused of sexual assault and financial improprieties by his own staff
one of the right’s most important allies in the UK, Boris Johnson, just resigned from Parliament in disgrace
Rs are losing in the early 2023 elections, as they did in the battlegrounds in 2022
The corruption of the Roberts Court is now undeniable

But of the all GOP’s challenges, and there are so, so many, the most consequential may be the clear across-the-board success of the Biden Presidency. It is making the fictional “worst President in history” narrative the right-wing noise machine has invested so much in impossible to maintain. Let’s revisit some of their attacks/memes given recent events:

Republicans are in serious trouble right now. MAGA is an electoral dead-end; the House is ungovernable under their leadership; their standing by Trump the betrayer is going to cause them serious brand damage; the corruption in their ranks has become a serious problem; the venality of their noise machine has been exposed for all to see, and its leaders are turning on each other; their association with Putin, a genocidal maniac, is no longer tenable; and the fictions they’ve created about Biden are collapsing due to his strong leadership and smart, successful Presidency.

I started Hopium Chronicles in part because I wanted to more aggressively challenge the tornado of right-wing bullshit in our daily discourse that I think is doing so much harm to the country. It is in that vein that I think we need to recognize that MAGA is in a form of narrative collapse right now. The stories they’ve been telling us and themselves are being increasingly exposed as rancid, red wavy fictions. What they are saying is literally less true today than it was a few weeks ago, and that is going to make it harder and harder for them to distract the American people from how ugly their project has become.

All of this gives us a huge opportunity to go on offense now, be loud and proud about what we’ve done and who we are, far more aggressively challenge them in the daily info wars, and strive together next year to get to 55 and turn the election into a clear repudiation of their historic awfulness.

We are at an important moment. We need to seize it, together.