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Post by peano on Sept 30, 2024 16:49:52 GMT
I can’t make a prediction. It should be “by big.” But the people who will end up making the difference will be the non-motivated voters. Whether they show up or not. And any hiccup, distraction or whim could make the difference between casting a vote or not. A person could get sick, chose to work an extra shift, invited to lunch by a friend, traffic was bad and I have kids to get home to and oops, guess I didn’t have time to vote. Or oh, was voting today? Or, as right-wing social media is saying: the Democrats may create a hurricane to depress turnout in dark red areas.  I can't keep up. Are Democrats incompetent, or so powerful they can control the weather? |
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Post by Merge on Sept 30, 2024 16:53:25 GMT
I know who I want to win. I hope that she does win. However, in the back of my mind, I think even if she does, it is not going to be an easy nor pretty win. I don't think we will know by the time we go to bed that night. I also think there will be so much rumbling in the winds if she does, that it will cast doubt. I've been on TT this weekend and seeing the devastation in NC. The idiots who keep saying the gov't is doing nothing or is FINALLY doing something. When TN wasn't really in the mix of storm tracking at the beginning. No matter what these voices will continue after the election. Those people would still be voting for Trump even if Kamala herself had pulled up in a yacht filled with therapy dogs, life vests, and a catered buffet and rescued the entire state by herself. So, whatever. I like the folks claiming there is no National Guard presence in the rescue effort because they've all been sent to fight foreign wars, and the next post is literally photos of National Guard soldiers doing rescues in North Carolina. We're still living in alternate realities, it seems. |
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Post by hopemax on Sept 30, 2024 16:54:37 GMT
I can’t make a prediction. It should be “by big.” But the people who will end up making the difference will be the non-motivated voters. Whether they show up or not. And any hiccup, distraction or whim could make the difference between casting a vote or not. A person could get sick, chose to work an extra shift, invited to lunch by a friend, traffic was bad and I have kids to get home to and oops, guess I didn’t have time to vote. Or oh, was voting today? Or, as right-wing social media is saying: the Democrats may create a hurricane to depress turnout in dark red areas. The people who can’t adjust their beliefs about climate change and its effects, so the government must have some technology to have caused it, is a more logical conclusion in their head, is so telling about how humans process information. |
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Post by papersilly on Sept 30, 2024 17:15:59 GMT
there are silent groups on both sides so i really don't know who will win.
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Post by crimsoncat05 on Sept 30, 2024 17:31:19 GMT
I live in a very red area, and I see Trump/Vance signs in so many yards. Rarely do I see a Harris/Walz sign.  I went to an estate sale Saturday that was in Olivette (near University City), and I saw a couple Harris / Walz signs. I can not tell you just how MUCH it warmed my heart to see them. I live out west of StL in the sticks where Confederate flags, Hawley for Senate, Trump Take Back America (take it back from who, is what I want to know- ALL of us? what the heck?!?), jacked up pickup trucks flying full-size flags - and I know who THEY support with those flags- etc. are the norm. (I only feel okay about displaying my Penzey's 'Choose Love' and 'Care' magnets on my car because most people don't know what I actually 'mean' by displaying them.) |
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Post by lisae on Sept 30, 2024 17:47:20 GMT
Right now, I just really don't know. I do believe NC will be a more important state than it has been in the last two elections. The devastation in the western part of our state could impact our vote. I haven't heard anyone say this but just hearing about what is going on and knowing that priorities change when your life is seriously impacted. I don't know which side it will help or hurt but I really can't see how the turnout can be as large in those western counties as it normally is. I hope things will be more normal for them by early November. A friend two counties west of me said today, that she doesn't expect to have power back for a month and they are not nearly as remote as so many of these people are.
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Post by revirdsuba99 on Sept 30, 2024 17:52:14 GMT
Better hope it isn't TFG. He is now claiming that the Democrats and Gov Cooper are deliberately withholding aid to those who need help!
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Just T
Drama Llama
Posts: 5,884 
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Post by Just T on Sept 30, 2024 18:07:49 GMT
Better hope it isn't TFG. He is now claiming that the Democrats and Gov Cooper are deliberately withholding aid to those who need help! Rich coming from the man who threatened to withhold help for "blue states" during Covid and even said that he himself wouldn't talk to those governors, that he made Mike do that. A$$hole. |
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Post by crazy4scraps on Sept 30, 2024 20:35:17 GMT
I've been on TT this weekend and seeing the devastation in NC. The idiots who keep saying the gov't is doing nothing or is FINALLY doing something. When TN wasn't really in the mix of storm tracking at the beginning. No matter what these voices will continue after the election. well this will make it all better 🤦🏼♀️ Louder please for the people in the back! It blows me away when I realize just how many people continually vote against their own best interests. |
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Post by aj2hall on Sept 30, 2024 21:12:58 GMT
I know who I want to win. I hope that she does win. However, in the back of my mind, I think even if she does, it is not going to be an easy nor pretty win. I don't think we will know by the time we go to bed that night. I also think there will be so much rumbling in the winds if she does, that it will cast doubt. I've been on TT this weekend and seeing the devastation in NC. The idiots who keep saying the gov't is doing nothing or is FINALLY doing something. When TN wasn't really in the mix of storm tracking at the beginning. No matter what these voices will continue after the election. A little more about how conservatives are spinning the storm and the federal government response. HCR had a really good point about the purpose of the Republican lies, too. heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/september-29-2024Late Friday night, Tennessee House Republican Caucus chair Jeremy Faison posted “President Biden has finally approved [Tennessee governor Bill Lee’s] state of emergency request,” making it sound as if the delay in federal support for the state during the devastation of Hurricane Helene was Biden’s fault. In fact, while Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina all declared emergencies and requested and received federal approval of those declarations before the hurricane hit, Governor Lee did not.
Instead, in keeping with an April joint resolution from the Republican-dominated Tennessee legislature calling for 31 days of prayer and fasting to “seek God’s hand of mercy healing on Tennessee,” Lee proclaimed September 27 “a voluntary Day of Prayer & Fasting.”
Lee did not declare a state of emergency until late on September 27, after flash flooding had already created havoc. President Biden approved it immediately.
Lies establish dominance over people being lied to, because lies take away a person’s right to make good decisions about their own life. So what’s the purpose of the Republican lies?
Jeremy Faison @jeremyfaison4tn
President Biden has finally approved @govbilllee state of emergency request.
ThisWillHold @thiswillhold
President Biden approved the request that @govbilllee waited TWO DAYS to send in.
Bill Lee thought it was more important that his constituents “pray and fast,” than to request the help they so desperately needed.
Fixed it.
.
@communitynotes
Jeremy’s LIE needs correcting. Thank you.
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Post by hopemax on Sept 30, 2024 21:32:58 GMT
Yeah, somehow they will work it out in the brains that the Democrats are more at fault, by *not* being big government leading up to the tragedy or after.
This is the reckoning we are facing. Our climate modeling keeps revealing it's not gloom & doom enough. Things are a lot worse than we think in terms of our infrastructure readiness. But that is such a hard reality to sell to people. This is a lesson I realized when the mudslides in Oso, Washington happened, and a neighborhood was destroyed. There was plenty of evidence that it was an unsafe area but the builders had money to make, and the people who moved there wanted the homes. The local government considered a buyout program, but no one wanted to move, and then that gets into the "who pays," taxes, government overreach, the political divides.
No one wants to be told they are in a place where at some unknown point in the future there is a significant non-zero possibility they will be wiped out. It invites questions like who is going to pay to fix this? Taxes? What if they say entire communities aren't safe and should consider relocating? So people just don't look. They don't ask if the surveys and studies are rigorous enough. Or if they give an hair raising bad result, people talk themselves into believing it won't happen, certainly not soon, must be bad data, and "whatever God has planned." There is incredible motivation to not be pro-active. Remember that, when you are deciding who to vote for. In their quest to appease you with friendly tax policy, or punish...someone... are they leaving your entire existence vulnerable?
I don't think the rich should pay more in taxes because they have more money than me. I think the rich should pay more in taxes because their wealth is dependent on being able to have sufficient and capable labor to produce goods, and proper infrastructure to bring those goods to market. The global economy can come to a halt when one link in the chain is compromised, and there will be economic consequences to this part of the US essentially being taken offline. People will have no choice but to leave, some won't be able to rebuild their business, corporate entities won't want to wait and be part of the rebuilding. We all will suffer. I saw on social media a group organized a Pack Mule! train to bring in supplies. This isn't 1850, and while it's great individuals are taking resourceful action, the deficiencies of our current arrangements because everyone just acts like modern society grows from the ground without incredible cost and attention.
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Sarah*H
Pearl Clutcher
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Post by Sarah*H on Sept 30, 2024 21:44:26 GMT
I think Democrats are too confident right now. I think this race will probably end up being decided by a handful of votes again in the swing states. This hurricane that blew threw Georgia and North Carolina - will the infrastructure be restored enough in 5 weeks for those people to even think about voting? Will the local and federal responses sway how they vote if they are even able to vote? That is millions of votes in 2 of the swing states that could decide the election. And we still have a month left to go with who knows what is going to happen. There is another potential monster storm lurking in the gulf right now.
Structurally, we aren't set up for a blow out anymore. Maybe in the popular vote, that margin seems to get bigger every election. But as long as the electoral college is in place, I think we're doomed to reliving a nailbiter where the outcome isn't known for several days after the election.
ETA: And I'm probably a bad liberal for saying this but I don't love how WE are politicizing this storm. Just like I didn't love how we politicized what happened at Arlington. These people are desperate. We can see how apocalyptic the destruction was and I know we all feel compassionate and heartbroken and a million other things. I hate seeing photos of Chimney Rock or Montreat (etc.) as part of a meme to hammer home how terrible Project 2025 is or remind people about how Trump feels about FEMA response to disasters in states with governors he doesn't like. We can say all of those things without tying it to this specific tragedy which is still unfolding. I kind of feel like it's hypocritical when we criticize Republicans for politicizing sacred spaces (Arlington) or their disaster responses but then we turn around and do the same darn thing to try to score points for our side by saying how we would NEVER do something that awful.
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Post by lucyg on Sept 30, 2024 21:58:49 GMT
I am pretty sure Harris is going to win the popular vote by a landslide, and the electoral by a modest to moderate amount. People have to show up and of course, nothing is ever for sure, but I look at it this way, I don't think there are people who voted for Biden who are now going to vote for Trump---he isn't gaining anyone. I think we need to consider the sad fact that there may well be a chunk of voters who were willing to vote for Biden, but are less willing to vote for a woman (a black and South Asian woman at that). |
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FurryP
Drama Llama
To pea or not to pea...
Posts: 7,284
Site Supporter
Jun 26, 2014 19:58:26 GMT
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Post by FurryP on Sept 30, 2024 22:55:45 GMT
I think Harris will win, by a similar margin that Biden won by in 2020. Mind you, I was absolutely certain that Hillary Clinton would win, so......  It's ok to be wrong the first time, as long as you are right the 2nd time. Go Meg!!! |
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3boysnme
Full Member
Posts: 405
Aug 1, 2023 13:28:26 GMT
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Post by 3boysnme on Sept 30, 2024 23:19:36 GMT
I live in a very blue state that is blue because of the gigantic city attached to this state! So we are not a swing state at all. The rural population just isn't enough to overthrow the city, but they try.
I just drove through some very rural areas yesterday. Back in 2016 and 2020, I saw a LOT of Trump signs. Not very many Clinton signs or Biden signs. This time, there were some Trump signs, but not as many. And I saw a lot of Harris/Walz signs. I loved this one neighborhood where there was a small Trump sign on the lawn, and right across the street there was a HUGE banner for Harris/Walz! Made me want to stop and dance in the street yelling "Booyah!" at the trump house! I didn't. But it made me very happy.
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teddyw
Drama Llama
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Post by teddyw on Sept 30, 2024 23:33:19 GMT
I’m not sure yet.
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Post by kluski on Sept 30, 2024 23:36:00 GMT
Sad about who I think will win. 😭😭
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katybee
Drama Llama
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Post by katybee on Oct 1, 2024 0:34:27 GMT
I am confident that Harris will win the popular vote. I don’t know if she can win the electoral college.
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Post by Scrapper100 on Oct 1, 2024 4:00:31 GMT
I've been on TT this weekend and seeing the devastation in NC. The idiots who keep saying the gov't is doing nothing or is FINALLY doing something. When TN wasn't really in the mix of storm tracking at the beginning. No matter what these voices will continue after the election. well this will make it all better 🤦🏼♀️ But he keeps saying he has nothing to do with it and people believe him so I don’t think that will affect the vote. He keeps trying to turn it around that the Dems must be behind it. I keep hoping people will open their eyes in time and just take a step back and really look at what he supports. |
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Post by Lianna on Oct 1, 2024 10:57:56 GMT
Better hope it isn't TFG. He is now claiming that the Democrats and Gov Cooper are deliberately withholding aid to those who need help! This from the man who denied North Carolina 99% of the aid they requested after Hurricane Matthew. |
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Post by Merge on Oct 1, 2024 13:42:08 GMT
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Post by Merge on Oct 1, 2024 13:56:10 GMT
I think Democrats are too confident right now. I think this race will probably end up being decided by a handful of votes again in the swing states. This hurricane that blew threw Georgia and North Carolina - will the infrastructure be restored enough in 5 weeks for those people to even think about voting? Will the local and federal responses sway how they vote if they are even able to vote? That is millions of votes in 2 of the swing states that could decide the election. And we still have a month left to go with who knows what is going to happen. There is another potential monster storm lurking in the gulf right now. Structurally, we aren't set up for a blow out anymore. Maybe in the popular vote, that margin seems to get bigger every election. But as long as the electoral college is in place, I think we're doomed to reliving a nailbiter where the outcome isn't known for several days after the election. ETA: And I'm probably a bad liberal for saying this but I don't love how WE are politicizing this storm. Just like I didn't love how we politicized what happened at Arlington. These people are desperate. We can see how apocalyptic the destruction was and I know we all feel compassionate and heartbroken and a million other things. I hate seeing photos of Chimney Rock or Montreat (etc.) as part of a meme to hammer home how terrible Project 2025 is or remind people about how Trump feels about FEMA response to disasters in states with governors he doesn't like. We can say all of those things without tying it to this specific tragedy which is still unfolding. I kind of feel like it's hypocritical when we criticize Republicans for politicizing sacred spaces (Arlington) or their disaster responses but then we turn around and do the same darn thing to try to score points for our side by saying how we would NEVER do something that awful. I hear you, but having lived through a hurricane that brought catastrophic flooding (and having been denied federal resources from the Trump admin because we're a blue-voting city), I think people need to be aware of what one side is planning. As hopemax said, disaster response requires a huge amount of detailed pre-planning to have agencies ready to go when this stuff happens. That won't happen if the agencies are dismantled and disaster planning thrown out the window, with disaster funding allocated based on the political leanings of those affected. So many people seem unconcerned about this issue because it hasn't directly affected them yet. Kind of like how those unaffected by mass shootings don't want to "politicize" them. At some point everyone will have to reckon with the fact that only one party is interested in preventing or preparing for tragedies. The right is politicizing the heck out of this event with lies - lies about the Nat'l Guard not being deployed or help not being sent, ridiculous lies about the Biden admin engineering the hurricane, and more. That false narrative needs to be countered IMO. |
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Post by papersilly on Oct 1, 2024 18:07:42 GMT
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Post by wezee on Oct 1, 2024 19:09:50 GMT
One of them will win. I just wish we had another choice
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Post by Merge on Oct 2, 2024 1:55:37 GMT
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ellen
Pearl Clutcher
Posts: 4,806
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Post by ellen on Oct 2, 2024 19:23:16 GMT
I get nervous about the election, but I think back to the week that Biden endorsed Harris - all of the money that came in, all of the huge zoom meetings, all of the people who signed up to volunteer. People were excited when she chose Walz as her running mate. The DNC was electric. I feel like she should win by a large margin. I think abortion is going to be a bigger factor than a lot of pundits think it will be.
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