[POLITICS] Moderates 4 Bernie on last night's NY results...
Apr 20, 2016 21:12:58 GMT
MizIndependent, quiltedbrain, and 1 more like this
Post by flanz on Apr 20, 2016 21:12:58 GMT
... and the path forward. I'm still a strong supporter of Bernie and I don't believe he should bow out of the race before the convention. And just wait until Californians weigh in! 475 delegates up for grabs, I think it is.
Moderates For Bernie
(from their FB page, today)
BERNIE'S PATH FORWARD
There's no question that Bernie's landslide loss in New York tonight is a major setback. But all is not lost for Bernie. Here's why:
(1) Bernie lost New York by less than Obama lost New York to Hillary in 2008. Was that devastating loss enough to derail Obama's nomination bid? No.
(2) Excluding the 4 virtual ties (within 1 delegate or 1% of the vote), Bernie has still won more states than Hillary: 17 to her 14. And he has won more states by landslide margins (greater than 10%) than Hillary: 16 to her 14. So Bernie is not exactly unpopular.
(3) Bernie needed 57% of all second half delegates to beat Hillary. Including tonight's loss, he's now at about 56%. That's not exactly far off. It's still very feasible for Bernie to win the pledged delegate race.
(4) It's nearing a statistical certainty that neither candidate will win enough remaining delegates to win the nomination outright with pledged delegate alone. Even if Bernie doesn't win the pledged delegate race (but comes close), super delegates might wise up to Bernie's significantly superior general election polling or Hillary's indictment potential. Remember, these career politicians are not idiots and have strong survival instincts.
There's only one scenario in which the revolution ends tonight: if we succumb to the corporate media narrative and give up. Otherwise, let's get back up and continue the fight. Everything and everyone makes a difference:
Moderates For Bernie
(from their FB page, today)
BERNIE'S PATH FORWARD
There's no question that Bernie's landslide loss in New York tonight is a major setback. But all is not lost for Bernie. Here's why:
(1) Bernie lost New York by less than Obama lost New York to Hillary in 2008. Was that devastating loss enough to derail Obama's nomination bid? No.
(2) Excluding the 4 virtual ties (within 1 delegate or 1% of the vote), Bernie has still won more states than Hillary: 17 to her 14. And he has won more states by landslide margins (greater than 10%) than Hillary: 16 to her 14. So Bernie is not exactly unpopular.
(3) Bernie needed 57% of all second half delegates to beat Hillary. Including tonight's loss, he's now at about 56%. That's not exactly far off. It's still very feasible for Bernie to win the pledged delegate race.
(4) It's nearing a statistical certainty that neither candidate will win enough remaining delegates to win the nomination outright with pledged delegate alone. Even if Bernie doesn't win the pledged delegate race (but comes close), super delegates might wise up to Bernie's significantly superior general election polling or Hillary's indictment potential. Remember, these career politicians are not idiots and have strong survival instincts.
There's only one scenario in which the revolution ends tonight: if we succumb to the corporate media narrative and give up. Otherwise, let's get back up and continue the fight. Everything and everyone makes a difference:
