Vladimir Putin has officially declared war on Ukraine

All is not lost yet. It is a race against time.

Yes, Russia has a huge convoy - but how much of that is fighters and how much of that is support? So far, logistics seem to be very bad. The Russians are running out of fuel, food, and other surprised. If it's all fighters, they may win firefights - but they won't have anything to eat, or ammo if they run out. If it's lots of support, those are easy targets to take out.

Yes, Russia has the country surrounded. But this war is costing billions per day - and Russia has lost the value of most of its currency. It doesn't have access to Euros, Dollars, or Yen. Other countries refuse to do business with them, so they don't have the raw materials to make more weapons. Using their own resources, it will take months if not years to rebuild the materiel that they've already lost.

The economy of Russia has tanked. People have panicked and withdrawn cash and banks are failing. The stock market is closed. The average Russian person is going to be going through some difficult times. The oligarchs are now having to live the lives of actual Russians - not rich, international jet-setters.

If Putin keeps talking crazy, it is only a matter of time before someone takes him out. Sure, he's got security. But so do all of the oligarchs. He was the richest man in the world - but is he still? If he can't get any more foreign currency or goods, all it takes is one oligarch with good connections to an EU or NATO government to fund him and that security can be bought over. If it comes down to "you all get to live the lives of peasants instead of wealthy rulers because I want to take Ukraine" or "you are all going to die in a nuclear holocaust because of my ego" - I would imagine someone will try to take him out.

The people of Russia are getting actual information, not propaganda. Never before has an entire WORLD tried to work against them in a sort of cyber warfare. Not just hackers, but regular people doing what they can to get the message out. The moms getting calls from their sons in Ukraine - do you think they won't tell their friends?

Regular Russians are now feeling the hurt - worthless rubles, goods in stores are gone, they can't get Spotify or Netflix, their trips abroad have been cancelled, their sports teams have been banned. Their lives are getting worse, very quickly. How long can Putin hold out? Sure, he can arrest protestors - but what happens when the police making the arrests realize the paychecks aren't coming, or aren't covering basic necessities?

It's going to be hard to ignore this one.

Even without an official declaration of WWIII, this is where we are in terms of impacts. Debated putting this in this thread or starting a new one about the fallout. We know about the West's dependence on Russian oil & gas in calculating the risk of doing something other than just letting Russia have Ukraine.  Here's the other big problem:  Russia & Ukraine supply 29% of the World's wheat.  75% of sunflower oil.  Ukraine is the 4th largest exporter of corn.

For us in the West, it means higher prices, and any grain based product will be affected.  For Africa, the Middle East, the other former Soviet states it means potential starvation. In addition to all the aid we are sending to Ukraine, the Eastern European countries for the refugee crisis there... we're going to have to find some way to mitigate this disaster.  Canada, the US, France, Australia are top wheat exporters, but we can't increase production fast enough to cover the short term shortages.  And there's still the problem of the shipping containers all being in the wrong place.

This is part of why Putin bet on the West letting him have his way, the costs are going to be so very, very, high and Western citizens are not going to be prepared for it, in the same way Russian citizens aren't prepared for what's coming their way.  People are betting on Russian citizens uprising to depose him, he's betting we will do the same (at the ballot box) rather than risk our comforts and savings.

I keep wondering about what happens after. For the sake of argument, let’s say that Putin gains overall control of Ukraine, but insurgents remain, making control very difficult for the Russians. Will we lift sanctions?

I cannot see how Russia ( as a country led by Putin-NOT the Russian people- remains anything but a pariah. Putin is a war criminal. How will the West go about establishing relationships with Russia as long as he is in power? I don’t see how that can happen. So the Russian people will suffer too. This is horrible on so many levels. All of this for one small power-hungry war criminal who longs for the glory days.