Trump 2nd Term?

If you read up on the politics of countries who have multiple political parties, you will find that its not a bed of roses. Often they end up not achieving much as they are constantly having to forge alliances with other parties and can rarely agree on policy.

I completely agree, that’s why I said he claims he was kidding, we all know he’s not. The man is terrible but he definitely has one talent and that is emotional manipulation.

I have a better chance of winning the lotto, then the chances of there ever being a viable third party in this country.  It’s just not in the cards.  It’s just not.  Why do you think Sanders latched on to the Democratic Party?  

First, you would have to have someone with unimaginable charisma that would appeal to both the left and right, and that includes independents.  Then they would have to have more money then what the Democratic and Republican parties combined raise for the general election  to set up an infrastructure to run a national campaign in all 50 states.  Never mind the man power it would take.

And if you wish to vote third party to send a message to whoever, you are correct that it is your right.  But you are kidding yourself if you think it’s anything other than wasting your vote.

That is the most frightening thought of the week. I do fear it.

Actually I am from one of those countries and lived under that political system for over 34 years and if the worse thing they have to do is work together with the seated members from another party I am OK with that. Absolutely nothing wrong with having third and fourth parties on the ballot.

Exactly. I don’t think your (general) beliefs or vote are invalid if you vote third party and I believe it certainly is your right. But I know for a fact it is a wasted vote at this time in our political history, wasted as in there is no chance of the independent candidate winning the election. And I completely agree with Lucy, third party voting in the last election is a very large part of why Trump is in office now. The truth is not a mindfuck. Or, it’s not intended to be.  If the truth felt like a mindfuck to me I know I’d be examining why that is.

eta: I’ll share my experience here because I have been told I was part of the problem before and it didn’t feel good, so I do understand that part of it. First voting experience I was so excited, went right in and voted straight Democrat. But when I thought about it, I realized what a privilege it was and that I wasn’t giving my votes the proper consideration. I felt a big responsibility to research every single race super thoroughly. That never happened to my satisfaction where I would feel comfortable voting, like I had done the needed work To “earn” the privilege. So I didn’t vote. When I finally got over that, and decided to research the races that were most important to me and count on my typical political ideologies for the other votes I was in a very bad place mentally and didn’t often vote. And people were telling me I was part of the problem and I will admit I felt a lot of guilt over that and listed my feelings and hardships as my reasons, my excuses. Turns out, when I wasn’t doing well I could have been mailing in my early vote, I didn’t know that. But that’s on me because when I was doing well I didn’t ask. I still carry around a lot of guilt for not voting when I could have and should have. Just wanted to put that out there.

There wasn't an option for me. I'm undecided right now because it really depends. If the dem candidate is too far left Trump will win. If the dem candidate is closer to moderate then Trump won't win.

I know so many people who didn't like Trump at all, were considering voting 3rd party, but voted for Trump because Clinton was too much for them. If you have a far left candidate (and I'm not saying Clinton was far left, I'm talking about the next election) those same people will again vote for Trump.

I hate this talk of wasted vote. I hate the talk about being part of the problem. Why? Because you can look at it so many ways. Take the people I talked about above. Clinton was too much for them to stomach so they voted for Trump. So it could be said that if you voted for Clinton in the primaries that you were a part of the problem. Eventually everyone become "part of the problem".

Telling most independent voters their vote is wasted on third party is having a lack of understanding of how they make their choices. Want to get most independents to vote for a democrat? Then put up someone their conscience can vote for.

Third party voters don't vote to win the game. Saying the vote is wasted and putting up wrong candidates just alienates and completely misses WHY they vote the way they do. They have to vote the way they feel integrity leads them. Sometimes, that means they vote for the democrat. Sometimes the third party. And sometimes for Trump.

Want to change an independent or a disillusioned republican to vote democrat instead of Trump? Put up a viable candidate.

In my state, the 2016 breakdown was 65% Trump, 30% Clinton, 5% third party. And all of our local polls had forecasted it to be that way for months. Even if all of the third party voters had voted for Clinton, she'd have lost by 30 points. I knew, as an educated voter, that whether I voted for Clinton or Johnson, my vote wouldn't be going to the winner for my state. Since my state is also a "winner takes all" for the electoral college, I also knew that being part of the 5% voting Johnson wouldn't impact Hillary's chances of getting any electoral votes here. Were I living in a state where the results would have been closer, or where electoral votes are split (like Nebraska or Maine), I'd likely have voted for Clinton, but I don't, so I voted for the candidate that I felt would be most unifying (which was a high value quality for me at the time). I'm smart enough to know the value of my vote for the state I'm in, and I vote accordingly.

Honestly, I find it insulting and extremely short-sighted when Democrats who have never even been to my state, much less lived here and followed our state political climate, insinuate that I'm automatically wasting my vote or that third party voters here gave Trump our state. If by 2020, I'm in a position where my vote will actively give a Democrat a chance against Trump, I'll vote for them, and I may vote for them regardless, if they are my choice for other reasons, but I won't blindly vote blue just to soothe the psychological feels of a party that blames their failures on everyone else but them.

Could be. I’m no historian, although I do love history. He would have some pretty stiff competition, but it’s possible. That would be an interesting question for the actual historians on Twitter.

It’s way too early (Dems haven’t even had their debates yet), but if I had to guess, my answer would be no to a Trump 2nd term.

His 2016 electoral win boiled down to only 80,000 votes in three key states, and they’re not looking good for him. That’s why his campaign manager is looking at Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire, but he’s in the 30s in three and 40% in one. Iowa? He’s underwater by 12 points. I was shocked by Texas – he managed to split the state!

The 2018 midterm proved that Trump’s base is not enough to guarantee a win, and he hasn’t done a single thing to expand beyond his base. He’s not even interested in courting the swing voters. The Mercers aren’t bankrolling him anymore. No one to direct Lock Her Up! chants to anymore.

Healthcare is still the top voter issue, and Trump has already proven he can eff it up royally but he can’t fix it. He doesn’t even understand it and his party won’t even touch it.

Most have already made up their minds – those who love Trump won’t love him any less and those who dislike him will just dislike him more, but if the states he flipped in 2016 have cottoned to his empty promises to the “forgotten men and women,” there’ll be some reckoning to be had.

Anything is possible and it’s too early, and people can say polls are useless (not I; I think polls are very helpful) but that’s the way it’s looking to me at the moment. No 2020 win for Trump.

I get that, I do. I understand why people who live where there is no. damn. chance of a Democratic upset would just vote their hearts.

The reason I say there can be a psychological impact is because what if a few million people who voted third-party in strongly red or blue states had voted for Hillary instead? Then she would have won the popular vote by 5 or 6 or 8 million votes, rather than 3 million. More of a slap in the face to Trump. More of a statement that the majority of voters in this country do not support the con man in chief.

That’s all. That’s my wish, and it’s not an order or a dressing-down to anyone who chose not to vote the way I wish they had.

The polls were wrong in 2016.  I don't put much trust in many of them at all.  I think the polls actually kept some people away from voting.  (my opinion)

No, the polls were right. National polls’ metric is the popular vote.

Yes, thank you.  I do know we have the Electoral College.  Your comment was specifically about the polls being wrong in 2016, and that's incorrect because polls measure the probability of the popular vote, NOT the electoral vote.