finaledition
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Post by finaledition on Mar 13, 2020 16:54:19 GMT
Mike Osterholm, an epidemiologist and infection disease expert at the university of Minnesota says we should plan for 6 months. He has been saying for years we are not prepared for a pandemic. He also said weeks ago that this would affect our daily lives. Did you see his interview on the Joe Rogan Experience? I found that to be very informative and while it didn’t make me panic it really laid out the fact well. |
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Post by sleepingbooty on Mar 13, 2020 16:59:13 GMT
If the most affected countries in Europe haven't peaked yet, trust me, it's going to be a while for US + Canada. Italy is still a few weeks away from peaking, France + Germany + Spain are a solid 8 to 10 days behind Italy. This could easily be 10 weeks for North America, sorry.
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carhoch
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Post by carhoch on Mar 13, 2020 17:01:01 GMT
I think that the kids will be out of school for at least 4 to 6 weeks
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Post by ghislaine on Mar 13, 2020 18:46:28 GMT
Skellinton...(sorry if I spelled wrong) Aren’t you contracted meaning that if your district closed an extra week you would get paid for it per contract? (Just curious...not arguing) I agree about the financial piece...I am sad at those almost gleeful just to support their thoughts I didn’t think you were being difficult, it is a weird situation I am in. I work in a non profit PreK located in a public school, so if the school district is closed, so are we. Classroom teachers (K-5) will be paid. I don’t know what happens with their paras and other support staff though. We will not be paid if we don’t work. It sucks, but it is what it is. I just hope it doesn’t last must longer then the 2.5 weeks scheduled. I have been saving my PTO to cover most of Spring Break, so I do have most of that covered. I won’t have anything for the other 1.5 week. Not devastating for us, but if it drags on it will be very difficult. I have seen some advice suggesting applying for unemployment as "they" are working on a special fund for Covid related unemployed. Something to look into or keep in mind anyway. |
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cycworker
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Post by cycworker on Mar 13, 2020 19:00:42 GMT
Skellinton...(sorry if I spelled wrong) Aren’t you contracted meaning that if your district closed an extra week you would get paid for it per contract? (Just curious...not arguing) I agree about the financial piece...I am sad at those almost gleeful just to support their thoughts I didn’t think you were being difficult, it is a weird situation I am in. I work in a non profit PreK located in a public school, so if the school district is closed, so are we. Classroom teachers (K-5) will be paid. I don’t know what happens with their paras and other support staff though. We will not be paid if we don’t work. It sucks, but it is what it is. I just hope it doesn’t last must longer then the 2.5 weeks scheduled. I have been saving my PTO to cover most of Spring Break, so I do have most of that covered. I won’t have anything for the other 1.5 week. Not devastating for us, but if it drags on it will be very difficult. I have a huge problem with that. If you CAN'T work due to an unexpected closure, you should be paid. I am in British Columbia, Canada, and there are no plans to close schools. In fact the chief medical officer & the Minister of Health have both stated they will do all they can to avoid school closures, because there are too many kids who rely on things like our breakfast programs. Plus our most vulnerable learners will get too far behind. I gave up the idea of coming down to Washington & Oregon in April or May, but I haven't cancelled my intended plans - just postponed them to August or September. |
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Post by maryland on Mar 13, 2020 19:02:29 GMT
I think everything will stop for a couple months. I hope I am wrong! I worry about grocery stores, pharmacies staying open.
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kate
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Post by kate on Mar 13, 2020 19:21:07 GMT
If you CAN'T work due to an unexpected closure, you should be paid. Our school employee contracts (as do contracts in many fields) have a "force majeure" clause that gives the employer an out. If the employer has no business due to the virus, with what money are the employees supposed to be paid? Many people in the performing arts are already in deep trouble because producers/presenters are canceling their contracts by invoking the force majeure clause. |
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Post by gar on Mar 13, 2020 19:22:33 GMT
In the UK they're saying we're looking at 3 months of disruption ahead at least. I do not think this'll be on it's way out as soon as April anywhere...but nor sure about actual closures. What did you think of Boris yesterday? I think when he stops all the Boris-buffoonery, he can be very eloquent. I thought the press event with him, the CSO and the CMO was measured and well delivered. I though our Scottish FM did really well too. What a nightmare to be in a position of power in these times. I agree, he came across well...calm and in charge. As @dottyscrapper (I think) said, the experts are credible and here’s hoping we’re on the right path to doing the best we can in this horrible ‘disaster movie’ time we find ourselves in. |
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cycworker
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Post by cycworker on Mar 13, 2020 19:29:47 GMT
If you CAN'T work due to an unexpected closure, you should be paid. Our school employee contracts (as do contracts in many fields) have a "force majeure" clause that gives the employer an out. If the employer has no business due to the virus, with what money are the employees supposed to be paid? Many people in the performing arts are already in deep trouble because producers/presenters are canceling their contracts by invoking the force majeure clause. Could be that this is a Canada/USA difference here. We are funded to X number of school days... the money to pay our unionized, hourly staff (Secretaries, bus drivers, EAs, etc) is already in our budget. So there is no reason not to pay people for something that isn't their fault. They shouldn't have to be at risk of not being able to make their mortgage/rent/ car payments because we had to follow a directive from the province to close our schools. Don't get me wrong; I don't have a problem with closing schools if it turns out to be necessary. I will have a big problem if it is suggested our staff aren't going to get paid. As it is, we are going to have ask staff to calculate the financial impact of this, and decide what we will advocate for from the province in terms of compensation/support. |
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Post by LisaDV on Mar 13, 2020 19:35:43 GMT
I think it depends upon your area and how it progresses. What I've heard is that they expect it to peak in the USA between the end of April through the end of May. We may get a dip in the summer months, then expect another wave in the fall.
Has China started back to normal yet? No.
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Post by papersilly on Mar 13, 2020 19:44:16 GMT
I think, as a nation, we have to sacrifice a certain amount of time for social distancing. Hopefully to slow down the virus’s spread. Maybe give the powers that be time to get more test kits and allow more testing.
i, for one, get stir crazy at home. I won’t be happy but I’m willing to tough out whatever time it may take to get a hold of this situation.
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Post by Scrapper100 on Mar 13, 2020 19:53:11 GMT
I think it depends upon your area and how it progresses. What I've heard is that they expect it to peak in the USA between the end of April through the end of May. We may get a dip in the summer months, then expect another wave in the fall. Has China started back to normal yet? No. I keep seeing this but boy I hope it doesn’t last that long. People will lose their minds with nothing to do for that long. That snd people need to work. |
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Post by crimsoncat05 on Mar 13, 2020 19:58:08 GMT
We may get a dip in the summer months, then expect another wave in the fall.some of the scientific information that I've read and/or heard recently (and I have NO idea where-- I've taken in so much info lately) is that this one might end up being a 'seasonal' disease, like colds and the flu are now. So in the future, we'll have cold, flu, and covid-19 season. IIRC, that statement was based on the fact that when SARS and MERS jumped to humans, they were very quickly lethal to people when infected, so both of those viruses died out quickly overall. Since COVID-19 isn't *as* lethal to people (in terms of the overall percentage), it could end up lingering / staying around in humans long-term. |
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Post by mikklynn on Mar 13, 2020 20:55:14 GMT
Mike Osterholm, an epidemiologist and infection disease expert at the university of Minnesota says we should plan for 6 months. He has been saying for years we are not prepared for a pandemic. He also said weeks ago that this would affect our daily lives. Did you see his interview on the Joe Rogan Experience? I found that to be very informative and while it didn’t make me panic it really laid out the fact well. No, but I have seen several interviews with him. IMO, he is one of the leading experts. I trust what he says. |
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Post by scrapsotime on Mar 13, 2020 21:14:31 GMT
Long enough that it will probably ruin us financially. When they start shutting non essential business my husband's business will be one of the first to close. We don't have the resources to keep the business alive for more than a few months.
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Post by mlynn on Mar 15, 2020 7:15:04 GMT
I'm not a doctor, but the US NIH published a study that says the mean incubation period is 5.1 days. How does that fit in with a 14 day quarantine? I don't know enough about infectious diseases to understand. Anyone help me out? www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748Ha, neither am I  I don't think anyone actually does to be honest, they're all guessing as this virus is unknown. There an argument for both I think. Some have shown symptoms earlier than others with who they've traced contact with. I think 14 days is probably a safety thing, just to make sure. It could even be longer for all we know. Some that catch it sooner after contact than others does make a bit of sense as far as individual immune systems go. Some have stronger immune systems to try and fight things off than others even in normal healthy people. ETA From that article. Median is the average. So we shouldn't use that time frame as gospel. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.You have things mixed up a little. The mean is the sum of all the numbers in the set (167) divided by the amount of numbers in the set (5). The median is the middle point of a number set, in which half the numbers are above the median and half are below. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 10:04:11 GMT
Ha, neither am I I don't think anyone actually does to be honest, they're all guessing as this virus is unknown. There an argument for both I think. Some have shown symptoms earlier than others with who they've traced contact with. I think 14 days is probably a safety thing, just to make sure. It could even be longer for all we know. Some that catch it sooner after contact than others does make a bit of sense as far as individual immune systems go. Some have stronger immune systems to try and fight things off than others even in normal healthy people. ETA From that article. Median is the average. So we shouldn't use that time frame as gospel. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.You have things mixed up a little. The mean is the sum of all the numbers in the set (167) divided by the amount of numbers in the set (5). The median is the middle point of a number set, in which half the numbers are above the median and half are below. Yeh I know, sorry. I should have said mean is an average which is what maryannscraps was saying the 5.1 days was in her post and that wasn't what the article was saying. |
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sueg
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Post by sueg on Mar 15, 2020 10:26:01 GMT
My son has a friend whose dad is a professor of virology. He believes Europe won’t be past the peak until late May/early June and the Southern Hemisphere is looking at a peak in late August. The US is a few weeks behind Europe, so that would put their peak somewhere in mid-June.
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pyccku
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Post by pyccku on Mar 15, 2020 10:42:27 GMT
Our superintendent said that the CDC has told them to prepare for school being closed 8-20 weeks.
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Post by Skellinton on Apr 5, 2020 15:21:31 GMT
BTT
Just wondering what everyone is thinking now? My hairstylist just started making appointments for May since we are supposed to be on LD until May 4th. I don’t think Oregon has extended their lockdown. It makes me feel hopeful, but is that foolish?
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pyccku
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Post by pyccku on Apr 5, 2020 15:36:32 GMT
I think we may start allowing people out in July-ish. Things that might change this:
1. Antibody testing - if you can show that you've had it - and there is some immunity - no reason to stay home.
2. A proven treatment - once we know we can save the majority of people who get this
3. A vaccine
Until then, plan on staying home.
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hutchfan
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Post by hutchfan on Apr 5, 2020 15:36:50 GMT
Here in Ohio we are on a stay at home order now through the end of April and Mike Dewine and Dr. Amy Acton have made comments that they don't think we will start to see things get better until June if even then.
And I have heard some say things will get better over summer but when fall arrives we will see cases spike again.
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Post by littlemama on Apr 5, 2020 15:40:52 GMT
K-12 schools are not going back this school year, which would have ended around June 10. DS' university moved Spring semester online- that usually ends the last week of June.
With the lack of a federal response and a lack of appropriately distributed supplies, I see this going until the end of May at a bare minimum. More likely the end of June.
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Post by librarylady on Apr 5, 2020 15:41:18 GMT
My personal guess is around June 1st some places in US will begin to "open up."
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pinklady
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Post by pinklady on Apr 5, 2020 15:41:36 GMT
Right now, I believe we will be on stay at home orders in California thru at least the end of May.
My company has tentatively scheduled everyone to be working back in the office on May 1st. I really hope it gets extended because I don’t want to be put into the position of having to tell them no I’m not coming back yet.
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ModChick
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Post by ModChick on Apr 5, 2020 15:43:54 GMT
In the UK they're saying we're looking at 3 months of disruption ahead at least. I do not think this'll be on it's way out as soon as April anywhere...but nor sure about actual closures. Agree. Our area is pretty much saying summer is cancelled and let’s hope September is “normal” |
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Post by cindyupnorth on Apr 5, 2020 15:46:17 GMT
I hope to God it's sooner. But we are being told not to plan on anything til at LEAST June, when this 3rd wave goes thru
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Just T
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Post by Just T on Apr 5, 2020 15:47:56 GMT
In my area (St. Louis), I will be surprised if anything opens back up before June if not later. We aren't even expected to peak until mid May. So far, my local schools are officially closed until the end of April, but some of my coworkers who have kids in school (I do not) are hearing rumors that they will be closed for the rest of the school year.
I am trying not to think about being stuck in my house until June or later. I know there are worse things, of course I do. But it is just all so surreal and overwhelming right now. But then, I tell myself that three weeks ago when I found out I would be working from home until April 6, THAT felt impossible, yet here we are, and we aren't going back to work tomorrow.
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Post by freecharlie on Apr 5, 2020 15:48:48 GMT
I'm gonna say mid to late May for Colorado
I hope it is April 30th
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paget
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Post by paget on Apr 5, 2020 15:50:27 GMT
I think for my area (WA) the shut down will extend to June 1st. My agency (I work for state government) tentatively rescheduled a large group 100+ meeting that we had to cancel in March for May 28th. I don’t think that will happen - but I can see June that we will start reopening with some changed rules-restaurants can seat people but less capacity so they are spread, etc. I think this will continue until September. And then if things are going relatively ok, school will open. That said, I think we are likely to shut it all down again in December when the virus is expected to amp up again. And then repeat this until there is a vaccine.
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I don't think anyone actually does to be honest, they're all guessing as this virus is unknown. There an argument for both I think. Some have shown symptoms earlier than others with who they've traced contact with. I think 14 days is probably a safety thing, just to make sure. It could even be longer for all we know. Some that catch it sooner after contact than others does make a bit of sense as far as individual immune systems go. Some have stronger immune systems to try and fight things off than others even in normal healthy people.
