How long do you think the shutdowns will end up being?

I think there will be a treatment long before a vaccine. I also think it's going to depend on where you are and when your peak hits. Here in NYS I truly think things will be better by May 1st as it looks like our peak is within a day or two of today. 

In SD we are being told our peak will be around end of June, first of July.

A lot longer than many people realize I'm afraid.

Heck, not everyone is on board with the necessary rules now.

When the time comes and we hear the "all clear, you are free to leave home, move around and go about your business" how many will hesitate? 

I think it may be a very jerky start back to normal, whatever that may be.

My gut says June 1. Nothing scientific here, just a feeling. I do not see schools going back this year.

I have no idea but whenever it is, I will hesitate too.

DD14 trains and performs in circus arts. They already cancelled their spring shows which are like a recital for the acts that are beginning and internediate level. Their summer shows have the advanced performances and have a storyline (a lot like a cirque du soleil type show) - and they are planning for them, but tentative as to whether they will happen. I doubt by late July they will plan to have 1,000 people in the audience. And as for training/preparing for the show - so many of these acts are body to body - DD is in contortion which is 3-6 girls bent together like a pretzel and/or doing tricks on top of each other. Unsure when it really will be safe.

I just got my Tim McGraw tickets in the mail for his September concert. Honestly, I’m already assuming I won’t go. Unless there is really positive change with this virus, I’m not going to risk it.

Missouri is on the mid May end for peak, but our city is odd in that we sit on the border with Ks, which peaks in Mid April. Our kids are supposed to go back at the end of April, but I suspect they're out for the year. I'm betting we're going to be stuck in this pattern until the end of May/ beginning of June with a slow re-opening of businesses until we know more about a vaccine and or immunity.

Duke University is also doing a ton...great that so many are working!!



We will NOT have a vaccine by summer. My niece who is a PhD student at UNC Chapel Hill in biochemical research etc, keeps saying it will be a year-18 months.

I think once they get the test set up for the antibodies they will start to allow people who have already had it out and tell everyone else they are risking things and should stay inside. I hope by early June!

I have Yellowstone (never been) planned for the beginning of June and Yosemite (we typically go multiple times per year) planned for end of June. I’m assuming both won’t happen. I’m hoping instead I can at least make it to June Lake which is on the eastern side of the Sierra for fall color 😢

I will be very surprised if any schools resume normal operations this year. And summer school is highly doubtful too.

Different states will hit their peaks at different times.

My concern is that people look at that “peak” as some kind of magic point - but it’s not like the curve is going to rise and rise and then suddenly drop to nothing after it hits the peak. How long does that downward slope last before we get to a point where it’s safe to start going out more?

This is my feeling as well. 

Yes- NY state will probably peak in the next few days. But I don't think most places will peak at the same time. Where I live in Texas, they are saying we are just at the beginning of this and to expect at least a month more of heavy illness. 

Well Kaiser called trying to set up a mammogram appointment for May or June I declined as I don’t think it will be safe until at least June.

I don’t remember what date the state and county currently have on things. It might only be until the end of April but fully expecting it to be extended.

I keep expecting to get a call from Kaiser about my surgery. Two weeks ago they had cancelled through April 18th but I still haven’t received a call two weeks later. I think we are expecting to peak in the next week or two so maybe they are waiting. I know I don’t want to risk being exposed and would rather wait at this point. If I have complications I do don’t want to have to go to the ER with this mess.


I also expect another surge after people start going about normal again and since we won’t have a vaccine for 12-18 months it’s going to be a long road.